India Economics Update India to lead EM rise up the global GDP rankings EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs... 11th March 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee intervention, but not as you might think The rupee is outperforming almost all other EM currencies against the US dollar this year, leading to the usual speculation that the RBI is intervening to prop up the currency. There is evidence of... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Judging the fiscal risks from upcoming EM elections This year is a particularly busy one for elections in the emerging world, and these votes raise the risk of fiscal giveaways that worsen public debt dynamics. We think the risks are greatest in... 7th March 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shifting consumption patterns, world-beating growth The much-awaited Household Consumption Expenditure Survey for 2022-23 showed a shift in consumption patterns since the previous survey over a decade ago, underscoring the need to re-weight India’s CPI... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q4 2023) The GDP data for Q4 confirm that India’s economy ended last year with a bang. Looking ahead, we expect economic activity to moderate over the coming quarters but it should still remain exceptionally... 29th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily EM Asian equities’ comeback may be just the start Equities in Emerging Asia have outperformed those elsewhere in recent weeks, and we think that they’ll keep doing well during the rest of the year. 26th February 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI minutes highlight first signs of dissent The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s February policy meeting released this week show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a cut to the repo rate would be prudent to show... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy performed exceptionally well last year and the latest data suggest that it has made... 22nd February 2024 · 1 min read
India Rapid Response India Flash Composite PMI (Feb. 2024) The flash composite PMI reading for February suggests that the economy continues to perform exceptionally well. Looking ahead, while growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors is likely to... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in... 20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Farmer protests won’t lead to big fiscal giveaways Widescale protests by agriculture workers demanding higher prices for crops have dominated the headlines this week. But the BJP is unlikely to make any big fiscal concessions given that its political... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Another good year could be in store for India’s markets We expect India’s stocks, bonds, and currency to rally over the remainder of this year. In view of the broader interest, we are sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our Asset Allocation... 16th February 2024 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) In the context of its continued hawkish communications, we doubt that the drop in headline consumer price inflation in January will be enough to convince the RBI to pivot yet. But it is clear that... 12th February 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Paytm fallout, RBI unmoved, new Inflation Dashboard The RBI left rates on hold as expected this week, but much of the discussion at the press conference was on its clamp down on the activities of Paytm Payments Bank. We don’t think this is a major... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI not ready to pivot yet The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. With the economy holding up well and inflation likely to remain above the 4% target for a few more... 8th February 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Feb.) The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. With the economy holding up well and inflation to remain above the 4% target for a few more months... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
