India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Headline CPI inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in May, which will be used by the central bank as vindication of its change to a more dovish policy stance in yesterday’s... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI signals further loosening to come The RBI cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting today. Arguably more important, it laid the groundwork for continued loosening in the second half of the year. If soft surveys are correct in... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in India’s manufacturing PMI reading in May should help to ease some concerns over the state of local manufacturing following the weakness of the GDP data for Q1. Nevertheless, additional... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) The sharp drop in GDP growth in Q1 looks all the more perplexing given that various other indicators suggest a much milder slowdown last quarter. Nevertheless, the data will seal the deal on another... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New Finance Minister faces delicate balancing act Nirmala Sitharaman, who has just been selected to replace Arun Jaitley as Finance Minister, faces a delicate balancing act in her new role. On the one hand, she will want to display fiscal rectitude... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Modi sworn in, Finance Minister speculation Prime Minister Modi was sworn in for his second term this week, and one of his first key tasks will be to select a new Finance Minister after Arun Jaitley announced that he would be stepping down from... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines inflation, Asia’s “currency manipulators” Signs that Philippines inflation continued to tumble in May suggest that the easing cycle there has further to run. Meanwhile, easing is also likely in Malaysia, Korea and Singapore in the second half... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does five more years of Modi mean for India? Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has secured another stunning victory in India’s general election. The key priority for Mr Modi in his second term should be to implement reforms to develop the manufacturing... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Three cuts in a row The MPC is likely to use the current low rate of headline inflation as justification for a third consecutive rate cut at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Thursday 6th June. But with a growing... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weakest growth in a decade, further weakness ahead Growth slowed sharply in Emerging Asia last quarter, and is likely to remain fairly weak over the coming year, with looser fiscal and monetary policy unlikely to offset the drag from weaker global... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Won weakness, election season over The 6% decline in the Korean won since the start of the year does not pose a major threat to the economy. However, policymakers are clearly irked by the decline in the currency, with officials from... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Can the party continue? Election fever has gripped Indian financial markets this week, with equities and the rupee rallying as it became increasingly clear that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP would secure another resounding... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Five more years of Modi Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has secured another stunning victory in India’s general election. The key priority for Mr Modi in his second term should be to implement reforms to develop the manufacturing... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in car sales exaggerating consumption weakness The recent sharp drop in vehicle sales might signal that household consumption has slumped. But a significant part of the drop in sales can be explained by industry-specific factors including higher... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
