India Economics Update Bank mergers add to reasons for optimism The government’s plan to merge several state-run banks is another step in the right direction towards fixing the beleaguered system. It follows a recent increase in the size of the recapitalisation... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Despite dropping in August, the recent manufacturing PMI readings paint a healthier picture of the sector than the Q2 GDP data released last week. That said, they won’t provide a hurdle to additional... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) Another unexpectedly weak quarter of growth in India strengthens the case for further easing of fiscal and monetary policy. We expect both over the rest of this year. 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI transfer raises more concerns on independence The RBI’s announcement this week that it would transfer a record dividend to the finance ministry this year has a number of important implications. On a positive note, it will help to strengthen the... 30th August 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform is still likely Measures announced by the government yesterday to loosen restrictions on FDI are a welcome step and we think that further reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment are likely over the coming... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update China and India Gold Imports (Jul.) Gold’s price rally saw Indian and Chinese imports continue to tumble in July. And, given that prices have risen further in August, gold imports could record multi-year lows in the second half of 2019. 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Corporate tax cut, Kerala floods If implemented, the corporate tax cut suggested by a government panel this week wouldn’t have a material impact on the fiscal position. But it would be indicative of a more accommodative fiscal stance... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI minutes suggest further loosening likely The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting suggest that the MPC’s larger-than-expected rate cut was intended in part to send a dovish signal rather than simply being a case of “front... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Further weakness ahead for the rupee The rupee has fallen by around 4% so far this month, underperforming all other major currencies in Asia. Growing risk aversion amongst investors in recent weeks has resulted in broad losses in EM... 21st August 2019 · 10 mins read
India Economics Weekly Key takeaways from PM Modi’s media interview In a rare media interview published this week, Prime Minister Modi discussed several economic issues. Among the key takeaways, it is clear that the government wants policy to be loosened even further... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit will remain small The merchandise trade deficit narrowed in July and we think that it will remain small over the coming months given India’s limited exposure to trade tensions between the US and China and the fact that... 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but even so, the weakness in the headline rate in July increases the likelihood of another rate cut at the... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Headline inflation held steady in July and remains comfortably below the central bank’s (RBI) 4.0% target, laying the foundations for at least one more interest rate cut later this year. But with... 13th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) Indian industrial production growth slowed in June, but the sector performed much better across Q2 compared to Q1. Looking ahead, recent policy moves should help to support local industry over the... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Kashmir tensions to have limited economic impact Developments in Kashmir this week have again raised tensions between the Indian and Pakistani governments. History suggests the most likely scenario from here is that, after plenty of posturing... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Headline inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in July and will be used by the central bank as vindication of its decision to reduce interest rates for the fourth... 8th August 2019 · 4 mins read
