India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Asian electronics and the coming EM export rebound The year-on-year rate of EM export growth should turn positive in the coming months, but this will mainly reflect favourable base effects from the Asian electronics cycle rather than stronger... 19th November 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Banking sector requires governance reform We couldn’t agree more with recent comments from RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das that much better governance is needed to improve the long-term health of the banking sector. The problem stems in large... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit set to remain small The monthly goods trade deficit was virtually unchanged in October and we think that it will remain small over the coming quarters as low oil prices continue to keep a lid on imports. 18th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bracing for more weak GDP data After a very weak first half of the year, the latest monthly data suggest that the economy hasn’t fared any better in the second half. We are revising down our estimate of Q3 GDP growth to 4.7%... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, but the fact that the headline rate dropped to a 40-month low in October won’t go unnoticed. Another rate... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Equity rally unlikely to last, regardless of a trade deal EM equities have continued to rise over the past month, seemingly driven by optimism about an imminent US/China trade deal and some improvement in the economic data. But we are sceptical that the... 13th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The first above-target inflation reading since July last year should not push the Reserve Bank of India off its rate-cutting course. While the headline figure is being driven by a spike in food prices... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The downturn in India’s industrial production deepened in September with the result that, on this measure, industry contracted slightly across Q3 as a whole. More policy easing is likely in order to... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Moody’s sets a very high bar Moody’s decision to cut its outlook on India’s sovereign rating is based in part on the government’s struggle to rein in the fiscal deficit. This is justifiable if a little behind the curve. But the... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Turning away from freer trade India’s decision this week to opt-out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is not entirely unreasonable given the limited scope of the deal. But by excluding itself from the RCEP... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen above the RBI’s 4.0% target for the first time in 15 months in October due to another jump in food inflation. This won’t dissuade the central... 7th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry on a stable footing in Q4 The EM manufacturing PMI stabilised in October and the breakdown provides further evidence that the downturn in EM export growth may have bottomed out. That said, any recovery is likely to be slow... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly More tax cuts, Sensex hits a record high Just a few weeks after corporate taxes were lowered, media reports this week suggested that further tax cuts are under consideration. While this would almost certainly push the central government’s... 1st November 2019 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMI in October to a two-year low is a worrying sign that business conditions have further deteriorated. But with fiscal policy being loosened and further monetary... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
