India Economics Weekly Vegetable prices still rising, populism risk grows RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated this week that, despite the RBI keeping rates on hold this month, the easing cycle isn’t necessarily over. But the continued rise in vegetable prices over the... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
India Economics Focus Turning the corner in 2020 After a dreadful 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more decisive measures to deal with problems in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a healthier pace in... 17th December 2019 · 15 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Headline wholesale price inflation rose for the first time in eight months in November. While not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, this adds to the impression that the... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Little threat from wider trade deficit India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened in November and we expect this to continue into 2020. Nevertheless, with imports of key commodities set to remain low, we think that the external shortfall... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code improved, NBFC relief The amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and easing of lending rules for shadow banks that were approved in the Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) this week should provide limited... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The further surge in headline inflation in November casts doubt on the possibility of further monetary easing. If the headline rate remains high above the central bank’s 4.0% target this month as well... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) The continued weakness of core inflation that we expect in November’s consumer price data will probably give the MPC scope to ease policy again in the near term. But the big picture is that the... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Over to you, finance ministry While unexpectedly keeping rates on hold yesterday, the RBI put the onus on the finance ministry to do more of the heavy lifting to boost demand. So if we are right in thinking that the finance... 6th December 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI leaves rates unchanged, but easing cycle isn’t over The Reserve Bank unexpectedly left interest rates unchanged for the first time this year, following five successive rate cuts. Nevertheless, the MPC has left the door open for further easing in the... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) We wouldn’t read too much into the rebound in India’s manufacturing PMI in November but, with policy stimulus already in the pipeline, we think that the prospects for local manufacturers will improve... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) India’s economy slowed further in Q3 and, with a strong rebound in the near term looking unlikely, there is a rising chance that the rate cut that is almost certain next week will be followed by... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Maharashtra drama a setback for reform prospects Developments this week have brought an end to the political gridlock in Maharashtra – India’s largest state by GDP – with the outcome providing a setback to longer-term reform ambitions at the... 29th November 2019 · 4 mins read
RBI Watch Rates to drop to lowest in almost a decade We agree with financial market and analyst expectations that rates will be cut by another 25bp at the conclusion of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) policy meeting on Thursday 5th December. This... 28th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Oct.) Gold imports by China and India remained at historically low levels in October. Our view is that the gold price rally is now behind us, and that ongoing weakness in consumer demand will be one of the... 25th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Phone tariff hikes, more data concerns A blanket hike in mobile phone tariffs of 10% as has been speculated in the media would add 0.2%-pts to headline inflation over the next 12 months. That wouldn’t be enough to weigh significantly on... 22nd November 2019 · 4 mins read
