India Economics Focus What to expect from the union budget A wave of anti-government protests and a weak economy have increased the likelihood of the finance ministry delivering additional fiscal stimulus in the FY20/21 union budget on Saturday 1st February... 22nd January 2020 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Stagflation concerns are overdone There has been growing talk of “stagflation” in India following the release of December’s CPI data this week, which showed that headline inflation jumped to a five-year high. But we think these... 17th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Risks from wider trade deficit are limited The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in December is likely to reverse over the coming months. But we think that a low level of commodity imports will help to prevent the external shortfall... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) The RBI doesn’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated to a seven-month high in December nevertheless supports our view that the rate-cutting... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower for longer: EM interest rates after the golden era This decade is likely to be marked by slower growth and softer inflation in emerging markets. One consequence is that interest rates will probably be lower than most currently anticipate. 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The jump in headline CPI inflation to its highest since 2014 almost guarantees that the RBI will leave policy rates on hold at its next meeting in early February. And with core inflation likely to... 13th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The sharper-than-expected turnaround in industrial production growth in November is a breath of fresh air for India’s economy and supports our view that the economic slowdown has probably bottomed out... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus increasingly likely A ramping up of anti-government protests and advanced estimates showing GDP growth dropped to its weakest rate since the global financial crisis in FY19/20 increases the pressure on the finance... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil prices, African Swine Fever & EM inflation Our measure of aggregate EM inflation, which hit a four and a half year high last month, should fall over the course of this year as the disruption caused by African Swine Fever fades. But this is... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Another surge in headline CPI inflation in December, perhaps to a five-year high, means that the RBI’s easing cycle is probably over. And a rise in core inflation over the coming quarters should... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Protests could be a mixed blessing for economy The direct economic impact of the protests that began in opposition to the citizenship amendment bill is likely to be small. However, the protests have increased the chances of a larger fiscal... 6th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price risks manageable for now High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India. Further escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran could therefore be economically... 3rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in December suggests that the manufacturing sector has recovered from its weakness last year and supports our view that the recent economic slowdown has run its... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for disappointing recovery in 2020 EM activity slowed at the start of Q4 and aggregate growth in 2019 as a whole is likely to be the weakest since 2015. Conditions should improve in 2020, but we think growth across many EMs will... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
