India Economics Update Oil price rise not a major threat to external position The narrowing in India’s current account deficit in the four quarters to Q2 was mainly due to the shrinking of the goods trade deficit. Looking ahead, the recent jump in oil prices won’t prevent the... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Aug.) The slowdown in global steel production in August is consistent with our long-held view that slowing demand will weigh on production in the second half of this year. Weakening demand stems from... 25th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Economic weakness to prompt policy easing in 2024 GDP growth across most of Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year and we expect growth to remain weak in the near term as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on... 25th September 2023 · 34 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bond index inclusion to boost pride more than inflows On its own, the inclusion of India’s government bonds into JP Morgan's GBI-EM Global Diversified Index is unlikely to make a great deal of difference to local yields. But the outlook for domestic and... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly G20 “success”, iPhone 15, Q4 Outlook The G20 summit in New Delhi, which managed to exceed low expectations, reinforces our view that in a global economy that is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, India will lean towards the US and... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Food price inflation the key threat to policy outlook India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, a surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2... 13th September 2023 · 19 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) The drop in headline consumer price inflation in August should provide some welcome relief for the RBI. But while we expect inflation to grind lower over the coming months, a severe El Niño and... 12th September 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly G20 non-starter, RBI’s speedbumps This weekend’s G20 summit in New Delhi will undoubtedly be presented as a foreign policy triumph by the BJP as next year’s general election creeps onto the horizon. But for all the fanfare in India... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food inflation threat is far from over We think vegetable price inflation will have remained elevated last month despite a moderation in prices over the past couple of weeks. What’s more, India recorded the driest August in more than a... 1st September 2023 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) India’s manufacturing PMI is again defying gravity, recording one of its highest readings in the past 13 years in August. It’s clear that the economy has been very resilient in recent months but we’d... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response GDP (Q2) The GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY23/24) confirm a resilient first half of the year for India’s economy in the face of the RBI’s policy tightening. More timely data point to a slight cooling in growth but... 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Moon landing, BRICS expanding, GDP withstanding Headlines in India this week have been dominated by the successful Chandrayaan-3 mission to the south pole of the moon. Second to that was the BRICS summit, which concluded with an announcement that... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five key themes from the BRICS summit Efforts by the BRICS group to demonstrate an image of unity and cooperation were on full show at this week’s summit, but – aside from membership expansion – policy proposals were light and not overly... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Focus Mapping India’s energy demand and emissions The government’s ambition of developing a globally-competitive manufacturing sector, combined with relatively slow progress on shifting away from using coal for electricity production, means India... 23rd August 2023 · 12 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jul.) Global steel production will probably continue to edge lower in the next few months, following the latest month-on-month decline revealed by the WSA today. Crucially, we think that steel demand will... 22nd August 2023 · 2 mins read