India Economics Weekly Shifting policy stimulus, PMIs, coronavirus Satisfied that the finance ministry was doing its bit to support growth by announcing significant stimulus in the Union Budget, the RBI was able to focus on containing second-round effects from the... 7th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Coronavirus: the financial risks for EMs The coronavirus outbreak could expose financial vulnerabilities in China and other EMs if factory and other workplace closures are extended. Within China, property developers are particularly... 6th February 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle at an end While keeping rates on hold today, the RBI has kept the door open for further policy loosening over the coming months. But we doubt this will materialise, and expect the central bank to shift to... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Asset sales target lacks credibility The government’s hopes of hitting the record asset sales target in the budget for FY20/21 hinge on the smooth sale of large stakes in one of India’s worst-performing banks and a politically-important... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the coronavirus on EMs The coronavirus outbreak will result in much weaker growth in China in Q1 and has hit tourism sectors elsewhere. If factory closures in China are prolonged, the epidemic could start to cause more... 4th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid January PMIs yet to capture coronavirus hit The January batch of EM manufacturing PMIs generally held up well, but the surveys are yet to capture the economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak. Extended factory closures in China are likely... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How important is Chinese tourism? Chinese international tourist spending has surged over the past decade, which is one reason to think that the economic spillovers will be greater for the coronavirus than they were for SARS. But... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) India’s manufacturing PMI surged in January to an eight-year high and defied the trend across the rest of Asia. Though the reading may fall back as fears over the coronavirus dents sentiment, the big... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Finance ministry loosens the purse strings The finance ministry set aside notions of near term fiscal consolidation by announcing additional stimulus in the FY20/21 union budget. That should help to support economic growth over the coming... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus to hit EM growth Our Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth stabilised in Q4, but it will no doubt weaken sharply in Q1. The coronavirus has already dealt a significant blow to China’s economy, and other EMs... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal policy to do heavy lifting, trade deal scepticism In tomorrow’s budget, the finance ministry will be trying to strike a balance between maintaining fiscal rectitude and supporting an economy in the doldrums. Some ambitious revenue projections... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack China’s coronavirus and the fallout for EMs There is no longer any doubt that China’s newly-identified coronavirus will hit its GDP growth in Q1. And other parts of Asia (notably Hong Kong and Thailand) will suffer a drop in Chinese tourism... 27th January 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly FDI inflows likely to rise further The rise in FDI inflows to India in 2019 reported by UNCTAD this week is a welcome development and we expect inflows to increase further over the coming years. A key risk is the Modi government’s... 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for the EM easing cycle? We expect that the broad-based EM easing cycle has further to run in the coming months but, as growth and inflation in many countries rise, it will be less widespread than in 2019. More importantly... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2019) We estimate that net capital outflows from Emerging Markets fell to a six-month low in December, and they probably declined further at the start of this year. With global growth close to bottoming out... 23rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM growth to pick up despite China slowdown After a bad 2019, aggregate emerging market growth is likely to strengthen this year, driven by improvements in large EMs including Brazil, Russia and India. But recoveries will generally be... 22nd January 2020 · 24 mins read
