Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM financial vulnerabilities greatest? The impact of global measures to contain the coronavirus will result in a steep fall in EM GDP this year. And the collapse in output, spike in capital outflows and plunge in commodity prices could... 30th March 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update RBI steps up emphatically The RBI has emphatically stepped up its response to the economic and financial market fallout from the coronavirus outbreak with another emergency announcement today. It has also left the door wide... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry will need to do more The Finance Ministry took its first shot at responding to the coronavirus outbreak yesterday but, at only 0.7% of GDP, the fiscal stimulus measures are small. Much more will be needed to prevent a... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
RBI Watch Stepping up the coronavirus response The RBI has so far taken only piecemeal steps in its response the coronavirus outbreak. But with the virus now spreading rapidly in India and with containment measures set to take an enormous economic... 26th March 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Growth to slump to a four-decade low in 2020 The measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus announced by PM Modi last night will be hard to fully implement but will still have severe economic repercussions. We now expect the economy to... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM capital flows: bank flows are the big risk The dislocation in global financial markets has led to large capital outflows from EM debt and equity markets, which has caused financial conditions to tighten. And the economic effects could be much... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of sovereign defaults? A record number of sovereign dollar bonds are now trading at distressed levels, although these are mostly those of smaller EM governments. Among the most highly distressed sovereigns, Zambia and... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Containment measures put onus on finance ministry The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in India is now rising sharply and, in response, most states have implemented full or partial lockdowns. With many households likely to have very low savings... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Will the market rout trigger a balance of payments crisis? Foreign portfolio flows out of India’s markets have surged over the past month to more than double the peak during the “Taper Tantrum” in 2013, which pushed India to the brink of a balance of payments... 23rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policymakers hold back, rupee drops to record low Both Prime Minister Modi and RBI Governor Das took cautious steps in their responses to the coronavirus outbreak this week, but left the door open for more aggressive measures. With domestic virus... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Coronavirus: can India learn lessons from the NIEs? Prime Minister Modi’s address this evening seemed intended mainly to raise awareness of the threat posed by the coronavirus in India. With case numbers still low, the government has taken few measures... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and the impact of containment measures The proliferation of measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus as well as shifts in consumer behaviour will have a severe effect on retail, accommodation, recreation and transport sectors across... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would struggle to contain an outbreak? Extremely dense populations in urban areas, poor healthcare provision, and limited ability to impose quarantine measures mean that countries in South and South-East Asia, as well as Egypt and Nigeria... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions: Alarm bells starting to ring The broad-based tightening in EM financial conditions in recent days has been similar in scale to the onset of the global financial crisis. Conditions are now particularly restrictive outside of the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI keeps some ammunition in the locker The RBI announced some measures to boost bank liquidity in a hastily-arranged press conference today but disappointed the bond market by not lowering policy rates. With the coronavirus a growing... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
