Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Long-lasting economic damage We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to... 28th April 2020 · 26 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Mar.) Imports of gold into China and India continued to contract at a double-digit pace in March. But the plunge in physical demand has had little impact on the gold price, as it has been outweighed by... 27th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update The fallout from the Franklin Templeton wind down The RBI’s new special liquidity window should help ease redemption pressure on Indian mutual funds, which have come under strain since Franklin Templeton’s announcement on Thursday that it has been... 27th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal delay, rupee drop, Franklin Templeton A second fiscal stimulus package appears close but, a month after the lockdown started, any further measures now will probably arrive too late to prevent an annual contraction in growth this year... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would suffer from a drop in remittances? Remittances held up well during the Global Financial Crisis but the scale (and type) of job losses in the current crisis mean that they are likely to fall sharply in the coming months. A drop in... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The oil market rout, devaluations and defaults Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries should be able to weather the collapse in oil prices without abandoning dollar pegs, and Russia will still run looser fiscal policy this year than last. But... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What if shutdowns don’t work in South Asia? The impracticality of social distancing for many will make it hard for countries in South Asia to contain the coronavirus. Failure to contain the disease would have dreadful humanitarian consequences... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor While emerging markets suffered large net portfolio investment outflows in March, the very latest data suggest that the pace of outflows eased in the first half of April. Meanwhile, it appears that... 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Lockdown will worsen banking sector strains The government’s reluctance to provide significant financial support for firms and households during lockdown means that non-performing loans are likely to surge. One legacy of the coronavirus in... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt moratorium, IMF SLL small steps in right direction The agreement by the G20 to allow the world’s poorest nations to suspend bilateral debt servicing will help to ease short-term balance of payments strains in much of Africa, most notably Angola, but... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI steps up virus response, further loosening likely The RBI has taken further steps to help banks and borrowers weather the collapse in economic activity from the coronavirus and containment measures in another emergency announcement today. The central... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly April is the cruelest month Activity data for March released this week confirm a precipitous drop in economic output. And with the nationwide lockdown now being extended, far worse is likely to follow in April. 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will a drop in remittances cause further pain? The scale of job losses and falls in incomes caused by coronavirus containment measures across the world – but particularly in the US and the Gulf – is likely to weigh heavily on remittance inflows... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data highlight collapse in demand The collapse in both exports and imports in March highlights the extreme weakness of external and domestic demand. What’s more, the worst is yet to come as lockdowns to contain the spread of the... 16th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns may not be effective in all EMs Lockdowns have proved successful at limiting the spread of coronavirus in the likes of China, Korea and the Czech Republic, but they are likely to be less effective in poorer countries – notably much... 15th April 2020 · 3 mins read
