India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The partial release of the WPI inflation figures for April strongly suggest that the headline rate has dropped. This supports our view that the inflation outlook shouldn’t be a concern for... 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Will stimulus push up government financing costs? The new fiscal stimulus will substantially push up India’s already-high public debt ratio. Policymakers may have to resort to unusual steps to keep borrowing costs in check, including further... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update New fiscal package is less spectacular than it seems Prime Minister Modi’s 10% of GDP support package sounds impressive but the details just announced make clear that it has been bulked out for effect. Extra demand-boosting measures are worth less than... 13th May 2020 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) As a result of the Statistics Office being only partly operational due to India’s nationwide lockdown, the headline CPI data for April weren’t published as originally scheduled today. But the... 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery a long way off Industrial output slumped in March and more timely evidence from the manufacturing PMI, electricity consumption and vehicle production strongly suggest that the sector has come to a near standstill in... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Interpret incoming GDP & CPI data with a pinch of salt With the incoming economic data likely to be less reliable than usual, we think that investors should focus more on the timely low-level activity data and the changing shape of infection curves to... 11th May 2020 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Partial reopening doing little to boost activity While the nationwide lockdown has been extended again, the latest phase includes a significant relaxation of containment measures in areas less affected by the virus. In principle, this should ease... 8th May 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation should be of no concern to policymakers Given growing worries about public health and the devastating economic impact of India’s lockdown, the current rate of inflation should not constrain the actions of policymakers. Further ahead though... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Apr.) The extraordinary plunge in the services PMI highlights that services is faring far worse than the manufacturing sector in the current crisis. Looking ahead, the services sector is likely to suffer... 6th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus Virus disruption will leave severe and lasting scars India’s economy is all but certain to contract this year for the first time since 1979. And the government’s reluctance to respond to the coronavirus crisis as aggressively as those elsewhere means... 6th May 2020 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs confirm manufacturing meltdown The drop in the EM manufacturing PMI to 42.7 in April confirms that industry is collapsing in Q2. Even though industry will bounce back in the EMs starting to ease lockdown measures, the weakness of... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lowdown on EM lockdowns In those EMs that were quick to control their coronavirus outbreaks (South Africa, Poland, Vietnam), lockdowns are being eased which will allow activity to gradually recover. But the damage from... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The astounding plunge in India’s manufacturing PMI to a record low in April strongly indicates that the nationwide lockdown has caused activity to collapse. Looking ahead, with the shutdown now... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Mar.) India’s core infrastructure industries index contracted sharply in March, suggesting that overall industrial output will have fallen by a similar magnitude. The lockdown only began towards the end of... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dwindling hopes of a quick post-virus recovery The severe weakness in India’s labour market and growing risk aversion among banks suggest that the virus and the measures to contain it have already inflicted lasting damage on the economy. Even so... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still have a lot of work to do The good news is that a handful of the early responders to Covid-19, including Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Czech Republic, have successfully flattened their infection curves. As life starts to get... 29th April 2020 · 6 mins read
