Long Run Update Reforms through the back door in India Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest the worst may be over for EM industry While we would interpret the May PMIs with caution, the small rise in the EM manufacturing PMI last month tallies with high-frequency indicators and suggests that EM activity is probably past the... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) The nature of the PMI surveys makes them tricky to interpret in the current environment, but we think May’s manufacturing reading indicates that activity in the sector edged up slightly last month... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Diverging prospects Timely data suggest that April may have been the trough for EM GDP, and activity at an aggregate level should recover – albeit slowly – in the coming months. But this is likely to mask a significant... 29th May 2020 · 11 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) According to the official GDP data, India’s economy held up rather well in Q1 as a whole given that a stringent lockdown was imposed in the second half of March. But the data are increasingly subject... 29th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Looser restrictions risk faster virus spread PM Modi is likely to extend the lockdown when he addresses the nation on Sunday as there is little indication of the virus being contained. However, restrictions are set to be eased significantly... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Cash to remain king for a long while yet Amid the severe economic damage that the coronavirus and containment measures have caused, one potential positive is the greater prevalence of cashless payments as people make more purchases from home... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns, infection rates and the EM recovery Large parts of Emerging Asia have controlled the virus exceptionally well, which should allow activity to recover quicker than in most other EMs. In contrast, many countries in Latin America are still... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Apr.) The latest data couldn’t be clearer: gold demand in the top two importing nations all but vanished in April. Imports should rise in the months ahead but will remain low by past standards. In any case... 26th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ramps up virus response, more easing in store The RBI has further stepped up its response to the collapse in economic activity from the coronavirus and containment measures in another emergency announcement today. The central bank has also left... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Transport services resume, Cyclone Amphan The government’s decision to allow some travel services to resume will provide a small boost to economic activity, but there is a substantial risk that this will lead to a further spread in virus... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Benefits of sovereign default more compelling than ever Recent reports suggest that governments of some low-income countries are reluctant to restructure debts owed to private creditors for fear of losing market access and pushing up future borrowing costs... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Stimulus disappoints amid lockdown extension The final details of the stimulus package reinforce our initial take that, while helpful in limiting downside risks to the economy, it will do little to boost demand in the near term. With the... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data indicate extreme weakness in demand The 60% y/y contraction in goods exports and imports in April highlights the extreme weakness of external and domestic demand. This will probably mark the bottom as restrictions on activity are... 18th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the stimulus measures After weeks of inaction, the government has made a splash with its new support package by spreading the details across three separate announcements (and counting) this week. But as more details emerge... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
