India Economics Weekly China push back, food handouts ramped up Measures taken by Indian authorities this week suggest that India is decoupling politically but also economically from China and potentially integrating more with Asia’s other democracies or the US... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EM inflation? A rebound in fuel inflation will push up headline inflation in most EMs over the coming months, even as food and core price pressures moderate. Alongside the recovery in activity, this means that the... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Manufacturing recovery underway The strong rise in the EM manufacturing PMI from 45.4 in May to 49.6 in June suggests that EM manufacturing is firmly on the road to recovery. We think that the rebound in activity will probably be... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update A brief foray into current account surplus India’s current account swung into a rare surplus in Q1. That probably won’t last for long as oil prices rebound, remittances drop and the trade deficit starts to widen again over the coming months... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) Despite remaining below 50, the rise in June’s manufacturing PMI reading suggests to us that activity has picked up further as containment measures have been scaled back. However, the lasting damage... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (May) The contraction in India’s core infrastructure industries index eased a little in May, suggesting that the slump in industry has bottomed out. But activity is still very weak and, given the damage... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will we see a turn to austerity in EMs? Governments in Brazil and South Africa have outlined plans for large multi-year fiscal squeezes from 2021, which will hold back their economic recoveries and are likely to be politically untenable... 30th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rural economy holding up as urban prospects worsen The rural economy has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks and we think it will continue to hold up relatively well further ahead. However, urban prospects look much more bleak, in part due to... 26th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (May) Imports of gold into China and India in May were little changed from the previous month and continue to paint a grim picture for physical demand in the world’s top gold importing nations. We expect... 25th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Financial conditions ease but headwinds remain After tightening dramatically in March following the outbreak of the coronavirus, our proprietary index shows that financial conditions in India have eased substantially over the past couple of months... 24th June 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of the EM recovery The latest hard data, and our Covid Recovery Trackers, suggest that the downturn in EM GDP bottomed out in April and activity is now edging higher. But the recovery is uneven, with rebounds strong in... 22nd June 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update BJP building its political strength Recent developments have strengthened the ruling BJP’s hand in the Rajya Sabha (the upper house of parliament). This should help to ease the passage of economic reforms, provided that the BJP has the... 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sino-Indian relations worsen, local lockdowns loom We can only hope that border tensions between India and China ease soon and there is no direct economic impact. But there may be indirect consequences. A further push back against Chinese investment... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Three key points on the latest export data EM goods exports have slumped during the coronavirus crisis but perhaps by less than might have been expected. Indeed, shipments from parts of Asia appear to have been boosted by a surge in demand for... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Remittance slump would add to economic woes Worsening employment prospects for Indian migrants in the Gulf and the US mean that remittance inflows are likely to drop even as lockdowns are eased. While this won’t have severe ramifications for... 17th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that most EM currencies will rebound further While we think that much of the rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies is now behind us, we still expect that most of them will make a bit more headway against the dollar in the second half of the... 16th June 2020 · 4 mins read
