India Economics Update China’s threat to Indian manufacturing India has made impressive progress in raising its share of global high-end electronics exports over the past few years. But, worryingly, it has failed to capture any additional market share in the... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: How India’s election outcome could shape its economic outlook 1717509600 The results of India’s multi-week general election on 4th June aren’t expected to hold many surprises about the country’s next government, with polls suggesting Narendra Modi
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Apple’s ambitions, Iran port deal, Russian oil The government's announcement this week of a long-term contract to develop and operate a port in Iran through which India will be able to transport goods into Central Asia is an illustration of how... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update India’s geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) Headline consumer price inflation edged down in April to an 11-month low and, looking ahead, we think it will reach the RBI’s 4% long-term target by the middle of the year. We remain comfortable with... 13th May 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why we still think rate cuts will commence in Q3 The consensus is now expecting the RBI to begin its easing cycle in Q4. But the inflation outlook, as well as recent measures to ease liquidity constraints, suggest to us that a policy pivot will... 10th May 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Economic implications of the heatwave Extreme heat across parts of India could be particularly damaging to the agriculture sector through both a drop in crop yields and a fall in labour productivity. But industry and services aren’t... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly What would Trump’s return mean for India? With Donald Trump’s protectionist approach to trade on full display this week, we look at the implications of a possible second Trump presidency for India. While a 10% tariff on US imports could dent... 3rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What Trump’s return would mean for EMs All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal... 29th April 2024 · 13 mins read
India Economics Weekly Extreme weather and AI risks in the spotlight There has been more good news on India’s economy over the past couple of weeks, but two key near and medium-term risks that we have previously highlighted - extreme weather and the emergence of... 26th April 2024 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
India Rapid Response India Flash Composite PMI (Apr. 2024) The flash composite PMI reading for April suggests that the strength of economic activity over the past few quarters has continued through to the eve of the election. Looking ahead, while growth is... 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Election begins, RBI intervention, Middle East tensions India's mammoth general election has just kicked off. Results will be announced on 4 th June and as things stand, PM Modi’s BJP looks on course for another big win. Meanwhile, the rupee fell to a... 19th April 2024 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The fall in headline consumer price inflation in March to a 10-month low will comfort policymakers and, looking ahead, we think headline inflation will reach the RBI’s 4% long-term target by the... 12th April 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Manufacturing ambitions across the political spectrum The general election kicks off in a week and manifestos are finally being released. Manifestos are rarely followed closely in India, but nevertheless it is encouraging that there is broad agreement... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
