Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank resilience improves, but risks continue to lurk Higher profitability has helped to boost EM banks’ financial positions over the past year and reduced the tail of weak banks that might struggle to cope with rising loan losses on their balance sheets... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rise in unemployment rate not a big macro concern At face value, a sharp rise in unemployment last month suggests that the Indian economy is rapidly losing momentum. But on closer inspection, the increase was entirely caused by rising joblessness in... 3rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The manufacturing PMI survey for October suggests that activity lost some momentum at the start in Q4. We think that the sector will continue to slow over the coming months as the impact of higher... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly India’s manufacturing ambitions constrained by energy India’s government is pushing ahead with efforts to make the country a key link in global manufacturing supply chains. But the increasing strain that the power network has come under over the past... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Rise in unsecured lending exposes India’s weak spot Continued strong growth in unsecured lending is putting India’s banks at risk of rising defaults, a concern that is exacerbated by their relatively low loan loss absorption capacity. This raises the... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Elections come into focus, RBI won’t relax yet Pre-election giveaways seem to have started in India and are likely to be ramped up further ahead of next year's general election. Although this could cause the Finance Ministry to narrowly miss its... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy appears still to be holding up well in the second half of the year. And although... 18th October 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Investment growth shows signs of softening Investment growth held up well in the first half of the year but there are signs that it is entering a softer patch. Meanwhile, despite the encouraging inflation data from September, the RBI is... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation dropped back sharply to within the RBI’s 2-6% target range in September. But the central bank is unlikely to shift away from its hawkish rhetoric for as long as there... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee weakness not a major macro concern The rupee has been hovering close to record lows this week amid the sell-off in global bond markets. But the good news is that the macroeconomic impact of a weakening rupee is limited. Meanwhile, the... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI stands firm in fight against inflation The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone despite the recent easing in inflation. Indeed, it even raised the possibility of open-market bond... 6th October 2023 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Oct.) The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone despite the recent easing in headline inflation. There is still a significant risk of the easing... 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook “Higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness We think that the now popular assumption that interest rates will be held “higher for longer” will prove incorrect as economic growth disappoints and price pressures recede. While recessions have not... 3rd October 2023 · 46 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) India’s manufacturing PMI moderated in September but remained high. However, there are reasons to think a further slight cooling in manufacturing activity lies in store over the coming months. 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal India strike raises risk of power outages Next week's three-day strike by workers at Coal India in dispute over wages raises the risk of power outages across the country, given that coal stocks are already at their lowest level this year... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
RBI Watch Late to the EM rate-cutting party We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 6 th October. Further ahead, our view is that the RBI will begin loosening... 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read