India Economics Weekly Recovery losing steam Various high-frequency indicators are suggesting that the post-lockdown recovery has stalled. And with new confirmed virus cases still rising sharply, the ongoing need for physical distancing and... 30th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor First signs of EM recovery losing steam Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the EM recovery hit a snag in July, partly due to escalating coronavirus cases and tightening restrictions in some EMs (South Africa, Colombia, Hong Kong). This may... 28th July 2020 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Tepid recovery to prompt further easing The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been emphatic in its response to the coronavirus crisis but, given the severity of the economic downturn and signs that the post-lockdown recovery is stalling... 28th July 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt moratorium extension, shifting geopolitical sands The likely extension of the RBI’s debt moratorium will help smooth near-term cash flow issues for firms and households but, in the absence of additional financial support from the government, this won... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Rupee could weaken even if risk appetite holds up After hitting an all-time low in April, the rupee has strengthened by 3% against the US dollar as risk appetite has returned to global financial markets. But while we think risky assets generally –... 22nd July 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector risks, bumper food harvest Concerns about an impending surge in non-performing loans have resurfaced over the past week. We flagged this risk a few months ago but, given the increasing likelihood of limited fiscal support, the... 17th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Nascent export rebound has further to run EM goods exports remained weak in May, but partial June data point to a fledgling recovery. This is likely to continue in the coming months, although a number of factors look set to constrain the... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Rare trade surplus gives little reason to cheer India’s monthly trade balance swung into its largest monthly surplus on record in June. But this is not something to celebrate since it is the result of continued weakness in domestic demand. 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for policymakers, but the broad-based rebound in the headline rate challenges our view that price pressures will ease this year... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Inflation in India appears to be easing after an initial surge when the lockdown first came into effect. We expect headline inflation to continue falling towards the RBI’s 4% target, which should... 13th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery will be slow and protracted The slump in industrial production eased in May, confirming that the recovery in industry is now underway. But given the likelihood of a renewed tightening in containment measures and the substantial... 13th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would financial repression look like in EMs? Several EMs in Latin America, as well as South Africa, Nigeria, India and Turkey could use financial repression policies to deal with the legacy of higher public debt burdens resulting from the... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Are we worrying too much? In the week that India overtook Russia to become the third-worst affected country by the pandemic, it has been argued that measuring virus cases relative to population size would give a better... 9th July 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation unlikely to be a pressing concern Daily price data suggest that food inflation has eased over recent weeks and, with demand also likely to remain depressed, inflation does not appear to be a pressing concern. The focus of policymakers... 9th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook The long road back to normality India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the... 7th July 2020 · 16 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jun.) The rebound in June’s services and composite PMIs suggests the economy is now on the long road to normality. But the recovery will be slow and fitful. 3rd July 2020 · 2 mins read
