India Economics Update How are the states faring? While some of the early epicentres of the coronavirus outbreak in India now appear to be getting infections under control, cases are rising quickly in several states that avoided an initial surge... 27th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI dividend, agriculture outlook The RBI’s annual dividend transfer to the Finance Ministry will do little to ease the strains on the public finances, and the central budget deficit still looks set to widen sharply this year. On a... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update New MPC will have more work to do The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show that the MPC – of which three members are now due to step down – has turned notably more hawkish on the inflation outlook. But there are... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Investment will take years to recover If the monthly activity data are anything to go by, GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) due at the end of the month will show that investment slumped by more than 30% y/y. That will prove the bottom given... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update External and domestic demand struggling to recover India’s monthly goods trade balance swung back into deficit in July, but the fact that it remains small means that there is little concern regarding external stability. Nevertheless, the underlying... 17th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shadow banking strains are easing Severe strains in the shadow banking sector that were amplified during the initial stages of the coronavirus crisis are showing signs of easing. This should help ensure that the economic slump isn’t... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) While the rise in headline wholesale price inflation was expected, underlying price pressures appear stickier than we had initially thought. We think these will still ease over the coming months, but... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The unexpected jump in headline inflation last month was the result of core inflation being higher than we had anticipated. We suspect core inflation will eventually ease back due to the weakness of... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus How will policymakers deal with soaring public debt? The economic slump and the government’s fiscal response are driving a sharp rise in public debt in India. There is no immediate threat given low-interest rates and the likelihood that nominal GDP... 13th August 2020 · 14 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery running out of legs The recovery in India’s industrial sector has stalled. Given the substantial damage caused during the lockdown and the likelihood of a re-imposition of containment measures, the road to normality for... 12th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt restructuring, car sales strength The RBI’s new framework for banks to restructure loans to struggling borrowers should help ease near-term cash flow issues for firms and households that have been severely affected by the lockdown... 7th August 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update RBI on hold, but more easing to come The only new step taken by the RBI today was the introduction of a new framework to help struggling borrowers manage their bank debt. The MPC voted unanimously to keep the repo and reverse repo rates... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jul.) The July PMI surveys have been a mixed bag but, taken together with evidence elsewhere, they suggest that the post-lockdown economic recovery is stalling. This adds to the case for further monetary... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The small drop in July’s manufacturing PMI adds to signs elsewhere that the post-lockdown recovery is stalling. Looking ahead, the road back to normality for the manufacturing sector will be slow and... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) The contraction in India’s core infrastructure industries index eased slightly in June, but the weakness of industry will still have weighed heavily on GDP in Q2. What’s more, there are already signs... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
