India Chart Pack Reasons for caution despite drop in virus cases New COVID-19 cases in India have dropped significantly over the past month. Encouragingly, the share of tests returning positive has also dropped, indicating that the improvement in test results... 21st October 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Latest fiscal stimulus won’t move the needle The fiscal support package announced this week is welcome but, at just 0.3% of GDP, actual demand-boosting measures are small. Meanwhile, the latest inflation data for September showed a greater rise... 16th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) The rise in headline wholesale price inflation in September was sharper than expected but, with price pressures likely to ease in earnest over the coming months, we think further policy rate cuts are... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) Headline consumer price inflation rose by more than expected in September but there are signs that it may now have peaked. We think it will drop in earnest over the coming months which will open space... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The slump in industrial production eased in August but output is still well below its pre-virus levels. And the fiscal stimulus package announced today will do little to boost demand. The recovery in... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle is not over yet It came as no surprise that the new MPC voted unanimously to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today. But the relatively dovish tone of the statement, along with the dire growth outlook... 9th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Over the worst? This week has brought some much-needed good news for India’s beleaguered economy. Activity data for September released over the past few days have been encouraging, while there has been a further drop... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Further easing still likely as new MPC takes shape After dragging its heels for several weeks, the government has finally appointed three new members to the RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC). Not a great deal is known about their views on monetary... 6th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Sep.) The rise in the September PMIs is a welcome sign that the economic recovery still has legs. But with new virus cases in India still high, the road to normality will almost certainly remain long and... 6th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Encouraging signs of improvement from trade data The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in September came on the back of a decent pick-up in external demand, while domestic demand showed encouraging signs of improvement too. But sustaining the... 5th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Our thoughts on the MPC shambles The last-minute postponement of the RBI's policy meeting scheduled for this week is because of the failure to find replacements for the three external MPC members whose terms ended after the last... 2nd October 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Dire outlook will prompt further monetary easing The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the... 1st October 2020 · 19 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The jump in September’s manufacturing PMI reading to its highest in over eight years is a much-needed sign that the recovery still has some legs. But with India now a virus epicentre, containment... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Aug.) The recent improvement in output in the core infrastructure industries came to an abrupt halt in August. With India now a virus epicentre, containment measures are likely to remain in place for a long... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Stonking current account surplus will prove fleeting If ever there were a sign of how extraordinary economic developments have been this year, India recorded a stonking current account surplus in Q2. This is unlikely to last long, as oil prices will... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Progress on labour reform, modest MSP hikes The three labour reform bills approved in parliament this week will do little to boost the slumping economy in the near term but, if the virus is successfully contained, these measures could deliver... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
