India Economics Update Export rebound stalls India recorded its largest monthly goods trade deficit since the start of the pandemic in October as the export recovery came to an abrupt halt. Looking ahead, unlike much of Asia, India will not... 16th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Assessing the benefits of the world’s biggest FTA Talks to establish the world’s biggest free-trade agreement, the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP), are finally expected to conclude at the weekend. While a deal would provide a boost... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation jumped in October further above the RBI’s 4% target, which removes the remote possibility of a rate cut at next month’s MPC meeting. But there are still reasons to... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Industrial production rose above its level a year ago for the first time in seven months in September, suggesting that the recovery in Q3 will have been better than we had been expecting. Adding to... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes, new rupee forecasts The increased likelihood of an effective vaccine being developed is encouraging news for India. But even widespread vaccination would not restore India to economic health, and we would still expect... 12th November 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Bihar election result boosts reform prospects The BJP’s relatively strong performance in the state election in Bihar suggests that goodwill for the ruling national party remains intact amid India’s largest recession in modern history. Bihar has... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Biden presidency, food inflation, interest waiver We wouldn't rule out a Joe Biden administration taking a more collaborative approach to containing China's geopolitical influence than Donald Trump, which could help strengthen ties between the US and... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Oct.) The rise in the October PMIs suggests that the economy has been rebounding a little faster than we had thought. However, there are still plenty of headwinds to the recovery. 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting the risks India’s banks entered the crisis in worse shape than other major EMs, although large state involvement in the financial sector means the government is unlikely to remain idle if loan losses start to... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update More evidence of a woeful fiscal response The Finance Ministry’s response to the pandemic has been even smaller than we initially thought. Announced stimulus measures were already meagre in size. It now appears that their impact has been... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The rise in the manufacturing PMI to its highest reading in over a decade in October suggests that the recovery has been stronger than we had anticipated. But given the damage to corporate balance... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry opting for tricks over treats Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s comments that GDP growth would be “near zero” this fiscal year paint an unrealistically optimistic picture of the economic outlook and, viewed more cynically, may... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Sep.) The slump in the core infrastructure industries index eased in September, and this suggests that overall industrial output contracted by 8% in Q3. That’s a slight upside risk to our GDP forecasts. 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Indian banks: the world’s weakest link Out of all the banking sectors in major economies, India’s warrants the most concern. It came into the crisis in the worst shape, and the scale of damage to private balance sheets means it will be one... 29th October 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Dovish MPC minutes suggest further easing likely The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s October policy meeting – in which policy was left unchanged – show that the MPC has turned more dovish on the inflation outlook and that it has reservations about the... 26th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bihar election could revitalise reforms The state election in Bihar due to start next week will be the first of any sort since the outbreak of COVID-19 in India, and a strong performance from the BJP would suggest that goodwill for the... 23rd October 2020 · 4 mins read
