India Data Response India Wholesale Prices (Nov.) The rise in headline wholesale price inflation in November was driven by a further acceleration in core inflation but this could go into reverse soon, especially if a COVID-19 vaccine is successfully... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) Industrial production rose by more than most had anticipated in October and is now growing as fast in y/y terms as it was before the pandemic hit. A near-term slowdown is a possibility but the outlook... 11th December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banks will get left behind in the recovery An emergency approval of a COVID-19 vaccine in India would reaffirm our view that the economic outlook has brightened. But while some have also turned more optimistic on banking sector prospects, we... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time to come The RBI kept the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today and made an explicit commitment to keep policy “accommodative” for the foreseeable future. Markets are too hawkish in expecting modest rate... 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Looser restrictions allow recovery to continue The recovery in GDP was a touch faster than expected in Q3, and activity data released this week point to a continued rebound in Q4. How much output continues to be made up over the coming months will... 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Nov.) India’s PMI readings edged down in November but still point to a continued economic recovery last month. This is likely to remain the case over the coming months as COVID-19 restrictions gradually get... 3rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response India Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI in November comes as no surprise given that it hit a decade high in October. The big picture is that the reading is still consistent with a decent recovery in... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Policy will remain loose for a long time to come We agree with financial markets and the consensus that India’s policy rates will be left unchanged at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Friday. Further ahead however, we think that markets are... 30th November 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Oxford vaccine is a shot in the arm for the economy The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine in India would significantly improve the near-term economic outlook, and we have revised up our GDP forecasts for 2021 and 2022. But the economy will... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) The y/y slump in Indian GDP eased substantially in Q3 (Q2 of FY20/21), but output was still 9% below its pre-virus level last quarter. Looking ahead, encouraging news on vaccines has brightened the... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Surging portfolio inflows, Q3 GDP, RBI meeting Foreign portfolio inflows into Indian markets, particularly into equities, have surged in November and we think they will remain robust over the coming months. Looking ahead, we agree with market and... 27th November 2020 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Oxford vaccine raises hopes India’s government has not put in any pre-orders for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that were first to report encouraging Phase 3 trial results. But, alongside the US, India has the largest order of... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Contrast in Indian stocks and economy may continue Although India’s economy has struggled more than most in the COVID-19 pandemic, its equity market has performed relatively well lately. We expect the contrast between the economy and the equity market... 20th November 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly A dose of reality Newsflow continues to be dominated by the breakthroughs in the development of effective COVID-19 vaccines. But the collapse of Lakshmi Vilas Bank this week is another stark reminder of the extreme... 20th November 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Investment recovery likely to lose steam The rebound in investment in India appears to have been stronger than anticipated over the past few months and we are revising up our estimates of Q3 GDP growth as a result. But the recovery faces... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The rise in headline wholesale price inflation in October was largely the result of a jump in core inflation, which adds to the evidence from the latest CPI data that underlying price pressures are... 16th November 2020 · 2 mins read
