Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising bond yields and the threat to EM debt burdens The rise US Treasury yields poses a risk for those EMs with large external financing needs such as Turkey as well as some smaller frontier markets, and could force central banks in these countries to... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Focus State elections could brighten reform outlook The upcoming state elections in India will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be important in... 10th March 2021 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Stage is set for a faster economic recovery India's economic recovery continues to proceed faster than we’d expected. We are revising our forecast for GDP growth this year to 13.5%, above consensus expectations of an 11% rise in output. With... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Feb.) India’s PMI readings for February suggest that output has rebounded further above pre-virus levels so far this quarter. With fiscal policy turning more supportive and new virus cases remaining low... 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) February PMI readings suggest that manufacturing sectors improved further in most places in Asia. Global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector for at least the next few months. 2nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading was virtually unchanged in February and remains consistent with a strong recovery in the sector so far this quarter. That should continue over the coming months... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q4 2020) India’s Q4 GDP data confirm that the economy continued to perform well at the end of 2020 and the outlook for this year has improved too as fiscal policy has been loosened substantially. Even so, we... 26th February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Does the inflation target need an overhaul? The debate over the RBI's 4% headline inflation target - which runs until next month and is currently being reviewed - has heated up this week. Some prominent government officials have suggested that... 26th February 2021 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Energy Watch A closer look at the Indian oil sector In this Energy Watch, we examine the outlook for India’s oil sector. We begin by outlining its importance in the context of our macroeconomic research, before considering how the demand and supply... 23rd February 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is the slow vaccine rollout a cause for concern? Asia’s vaccine rollout has got off to a slow start. This is not a big concern in countries that have contained the virus and where social distancing is not a drag on growth such as Taiwan and China... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest rate hikes are a long way off The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s February policy meeting – in which interest rates were left unchanged – show that the MPC remains cautious on the inflation outlook but that it is also committed to... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Investment recovery, oil price impact The latest monthly activity data suggest that investment staged a stronger recovery than we had anticipated at the end of 2020 and, as such, we are nudging up our estimate of Q4 GDP. Meanwhile, the... 19th February 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update External position looks secure The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in January is likely to soon reverse as the recovery in domestic demand and oil prices pushes up imports. But while this means that India’s recent current... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) CPI inflation dropped back to a fraction above the RBI’s long-term target in January, its lowest since 2019. It should remain well inside the target band over coming months as easing supply... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policymakers will keep a lid on borrowing costs Indian yields rose significantly in the aftermath of the unexpectedly-accommodative Union Budget announcement but developments since - including a ramping up of open market operations - have helped to... 11th February 2021 · 5 mins read
