India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI for March indicates a continued rebound in the sector last month, but that has already been overtaken by more recent events. In particular, the renewed surge in new COVID-19... 5th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Surge in virus cases a growing threat to recovery The rise in new COVID-19 infections to a six-month high yesterday has predominantly been limited to one state. But there are signs that the virus is spreading rapidly to other parts of the country and... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation target maintained, external risks diminished Confirmation that the RBI’s current target of 4% headline inflation will be maintained for another five years is the best outcome from an economic perspective, as tinkering with it could have un... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) March PMI readings suggest that manufacturing sectors improved further in most places in Asia. Global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector for the next few months. 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Feb.) Growth in India’s core infrastructure industries slumped in February and, with the broader industrial outlook taking a turn for the worse as new COVID-19 cases mount, the RBI is likely to keep policy... 31st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asian central banks in no rush to raise interest rates Unlike in some emerging markets, central banks across Emerging Asia are in no rush to tighten monetary policy. External factors won’t compel policymakers to tighten, and with inflationary pressures... 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch RBI unlikely to follow its EM peers EM monetary policy has turned decidedly more hawkish in recent weeks. But, with a renewed surge COVID-19 infections a downside risk to India’s recovery, we don’t think the Reserve Bank will be joining... 29th March 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly NPL floodgates open, new FX forecasts, state elections With the Supreme Court this week lifting its ban on banks classifying delinquent loans as non-performing, the last major extra-ordinary banking sector measure has been unwound and recorded NPLs are... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update FDI outlook remains upbeat Parliament’s approval this week of a loosening of restrictions on FDI in the insurance sector will not have a significant macro impact, but it provides reassurance that FDI reform remains a priority... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update What next for inflation? A rise in headline consumer price inflation over the coming months will do little to temper growing market expectations of imminent rate hikes. But it will largely be driven by fuel price inflation... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What would a global return to normality mean for Asia? As vaccines are rolled out across the world and restrictions on economic activity are removed, we expect global consumption patterns to return to something like normal. Electronics exporters, most... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Renewed virus outbreak a key downside risk The rise in new COVID-19 infections to a three-month high this week does not appear to be a major threat to India's economy yet as cases are still comparatively low and the outbreak has predominantly... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Waning portfolio flows not a major macro concern Foreign investor appetite for Indian assets has faded in recent weeks. Inflows into the equity market have waned, while foreigners have turned into net sellers of Indian debt. This chimes with... 18th March 2021 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update External risks look manageable The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in February is likely to soon reverse as the recovery in domestic demand and oil prices pushes up imports. But while this means that India’s recent current... 16th March 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The acceleration in headline wholesale price inflation in February to a two-year high will do little to dampen growing market expectations of rate hikes in the very near future. However, we still... 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Markets are jumping the gun on RBI rate hikes Financial markets appear increasingly convinced that the RBI is on the cusp of monetary tightening, perhaps due to fears of a re-run of the Taper Tantrum in 2013. But India isn’t as vulnerable to a... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
