India Data Response GDP (Q1) The smaller than expected rise in Indian GDP in Q1 will be followed by a significant contraction in Q2 caused by the virus surge and tightening of containment measures. While the real-time activity... 31st May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Activity bottoming out The continued drop in new virus cases has coincided with a bottoming out in some of the real-time activity data, and the evidence from last year suggests that activity could bounce back rapidly when... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
RBI Watch Policy to remain loose for a long time yet We agree with financial markets and the analyst consensus that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on 4 th June, particularly given that the worst of... 27th May 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Labour market taking a hit, Cyclone Tauktae High-frequency data show that job losses are starting to mount, but a key lesson from last year is that the labour market can recover quickly once virus restrictions are lifted. That provides hope... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Over the worst? New virus cases in India remain extremely high, but some solace can be taken from the fact that they have dropped rapidly over the past couple of weeks back to their level in mid-April. The share of... 20th May 2021 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update Higher female participation to help India outperform There is typically more scope for female participation rates to rise and boost labour supply in EMs. This is particularly so in India and is one reason why we expect its economy to outperform in the... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The surge in Indian wholesale price inflation in April was driven in large part by the rally in commodity prices, which we think will reverse over the coming months. That should allow the RBI to keep... 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Trade shows resilience amid virus restrictions Goods trade data for April add to evidence from elsewhere that that the new round of virus restrictions has not been as economically disruptive as the national lockdown last year. 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Slowdown in vaccine rollout casts a dark cloud New virus cases in India remain extremely high, but there have at least been some encouraging signs this week that the current wave is close to peaking. However, lacklustre progress with the... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped to a three-month low in April, adding to evidence elsewhere that the recent tightening of virus restrictions has not been as economically disruptive as the... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Current messages from the real-time data Real-time data indicate that industry in India has not been hit as severely as services, and is holding up well compared to a year ago. That’s a reflection of the more targeted restrictions that have... 10th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Reasons for hope and despair New infections in a handful of key states including Maharashtra now appear to be stabilising but, with the virus still spreading in almost every other part of the country, containment measures will... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spill-overs from India’s COVID-19 crisis The impact of India’s COVID-19 crisis on other EMs through normal economic channels such as trade and financial links should be manageable. The more serious impact will come through delays to vaccine... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ramps up virus response In an unscheduled announcement today, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das unveiled an array of measures aimed at mitigating the economic and financial impact of India’s virus crisis. This Update takes stock... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Apr.) India’s PMI readings for April suggest that economic activity has held up fairly well despite the latest set of containment measures. But with virus cases still extremely high, tighter and wider... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update State election results fail to move the needle Results of the state elections that have been taking place over the past couple of months are unlikely to have undermined the BJP’s willingness to implement difficult economic reforms, particularly... 3rd May 2021 · 3 mins read
