India Economics Weekly Economic rebound underway, capital inflows pick up Real-time data show a notable pick up in activity over the past couple of weeks, most likely due to the easing of virus restrictions in some major states. There are clearly upside risks to our view... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think the outlook for bonds is brighter in India than in Brazil While we expect a renewed rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to put upward pressure on the yields of 10-year government bonds in both India and Brazil, we project the increase in the former to be... 16th June 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update External demand to support economy in Q2 India’s goods trade deficit narrowed to an eight-month low in May as exports held up much better than imports. Strong external demand will help to offset some of the damage to domestic demand caused... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Focus Global migration to bounce back Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus... 15th June 2021 · 21 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) India’s consumer price inflation jumped to a six-month high in May on the back of an unexpected surge in core inflation, which we suspect is a result of rising commodity prices now seeping into retail... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Wholesale price inflation surged to a three-decade high in May on the back of the sharp rise in global commodity prices and will be a concern for policymakers. However, there are reasons to think that... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) There is unlikely to be a clearer illustration of the distorting impact of base effects than the 134% y/y rise reported in Indian industrial production in April. Industrial output actually dropped in... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Monsoon puts a cloud over vaccine rollout The monsoon season has begun in India and the extent of the rains has a significant impact on the incomes of hundreds of millions of families given the high level of employment in agriculture. A good... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Resilient remittances will aid the recovery Remittance flows into India have been resilient in recent months and, with employment prospects for Indian migrants looking better than a year ago, they should continue to hold up well. That should... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Why we remain bearish on the renminbi We continue to think that the renminbi will end the year weaker against the US dollar and, while not an essential factor in that forecast, the recent steps by China’s policymakers to weaken the... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time yet The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and announced plans to ramp up government bond purchases on the secondary market, underlining its commitment to supporting the... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Lockdown extensions, industrial weakness Several states have extended lockdowns this week even as new virus cases continue to plunge. With local governments taking a cautious approach to reopening, the economic recovery is likely to be more... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Focus The fallout from the second wave India’s ferocious second wave of COVID infections is likely to have caused the economy to contract by about 5% over Q2 as a whole. The good news is that the outbreak is quickly subsiding and activity... 3rd June 2021 · 10 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (May) India’s PMI readings for May adds to evidence elsewhere that the damage from the second virus wave has not been as severe as when the pandemic first struck last year. But with restrictions likely to... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply that goods shortages are pushing up prices The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI to a ten-month low in May suggests that activity has taken a hit from the second virus wave despite the sector being largely exempt from containment measures. And... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
