India Economics Update Wider trade deficit won’t threaten external position The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in June came on the back of a rebound in imports amid the lifting of containment measures and the recent rally in global oil prices. But while the economic... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation dropped for the first time in five months in June and is set to fall sharply over the coming months as commodity prices drop back. With headline CPI inflation also likely to... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) India’s consumer price inflation remained above the 6% upper limit of the RBI’s target range for a second consecutive month in June. But if we are right in thinking that inflation has peaked, the... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation concerns will prove misplaced A further jump in government bond yields in India this week points to growing expectations of monetary tightening, perhaps fuelled by concerns over rising inflation. But while CPI data next week are... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update A closer look at India’s vaccine supply projections The government’s latest vaccine supply projections suggest that India could fully vaccinate all adults by year end. But that hinges on optimistic assumptions about production and distribution. Unless... 7th July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jun.) The drop in India’s PMI readings for June should soon reverse as the second virus wave has subsided and restrictions are being eased. But a rapid reopening increases the risks of fresh outbreaks... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil to outperform in Q3 We expect strong growth in oil demand this quarter as virus-related travel restrictions are lifted in most of the largest consuming countries. At the same time, supply will remain relatively... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the latest fiscal package The new fiscal package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this week will only have a limited impact on both the central budget deficit and demand. It appears that the government feels it... 2nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rebound underway, but relapse risks grow India’s ferocious second virus wave is subsiding as quickly as it emerged, enabling the recovery to get back on track. However, the rapid scaling back of containment measures that is underway... 1st July 2021 · 19 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI in June suggests that the recent plunge in new virus cases has yet to translate into a pick-up in manufacturing activity. The recovery should get back on track as... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (May) India’s core infrastructure industries index dropped sharply in m/m terms in May, suggesting that the second virus wave has taken a large toll on industry even though it has been subject to fewer... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update We still think gold will lose its shine After rallying from April onwards, the price of gold has dropped back in recent weeks. We expect the price of gold to fall further over the next couple of years as long-dated US real yields climb. 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Can the pick-up in vaccinations be sustained? India’s vaccine rollout appears to have shifted into a higher gear, with daily vaccinations more than doubling over the past couple of weeks. If this upturn is sustained, it would significantly reduce... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Borrowing costs will remain in check India’s 10-year government bond yields have remained stable at around 6% over the past month, taking the unexpectedly large jump in inflation in May and a more hawkish turn by the US Fed in their... 23rd June 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q2 in Central Europe, weakness in India The latest data suggest that the Central European and some Asian economies will probably post strong GDP growth in Q2, but virus outbreaks have weighed on recoveries in India and parts of Latin... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update How much further will inflation rise? The recent jump in India’s consumer price inflation has taken us (and most others) by surprise and we have revised up our near-term forecasts. However, a big chunk of the surge – even in the most... 22nd June 2021 · 4 mins read
