RBI Watch Rate hikes remain a distant prospect Policy rates are highly likely to be left unchanged at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on Friday 8 th October, particularly given the recent drop in inflation. The committee might... 29th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q3 for LatAm, weakness in much of Asia The latest data suggest that GDP growth in much of Emerging Asia slowed markedly in Q3, and that the recovery in Emerging Europe lost a bit of steam. Latin American economies generally strengthened... 27th September 2021 · 2 mins read
CE Spotlight Have emerging markets vanquished inflation? Low inflation is here to stay in much of the emerging world. However, there is a significant risk that inflation rises, albeit moderately, over the medium term in several countries. This risk isn’t... 27th September 2021 · 26 mins read
India Economics Weekly Domestic needs limit prospects for vaccine exports India is planning to resume exporting COVID-19 vaccines from October, which should help to further boost the trade position. But with vaccination coverage still low, the domestic vaccine rollout will... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think China’s equities will continue to struggle Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years. Drop-In: Evergrande – What are... 22nd September 2021 · 8 mins read
India Chart Pack Global index inclusion would marginally boost bonds Speculation is building that India will be included in major global bond indices over the next year or so. If that happens, it would highlight the local bond market’s growing maturity and be cast as a... 22nd September 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
India Economics Focus A dive into the National Infrastructure Pipeline The Indian government’s aim to significantly ramp up infrastructure investment through its flagship National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) has suffered less disruption than might have been expected... 20th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ set to tighten in October, RBA in early-2023 The strong rise in New Zealand’s GDP in Q2 nearly returned output to its pre-virus path despite the headwinds from low net migration and the slump in foreign tourism. So while GDP plunged in Q3, we... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Telecoms lifeline, autos constraints, bank liquidity India's struggling telecoms firms were thrown a lifeline this week after parliament approved a four-year moratorium on dues owed to the government. One potential consequence is that telecoms firms are... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets appear to have eased over the past month, helped by a pickup in portfolio flows into South East Asia and India. Looking ahead, even if rising US Treasury... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Three points on banking sector liquidity Measures by the Reserve Bank to drain banking sector liquidity have caught attention over the past few days. But with liquidity still abundant, interbank rates at the very bottom of the rate corridor... 14th September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Following the weaker-than-expected consumer price inflation data for August released yesterday, headline wholesale price inflation data released today surprised to the upside. But it should resume... 14th September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in India’s consumer price inflation in August was driven by a continued fall in food inflation. We expect a broader easing in price pressures to bring headline inflation further below the 6%... 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions still loose barring LatAm Our financial conditions indices show that conditions remain loose by historic standards in most EMs. The key exception is Latin America, where conditions have tightened sharply this year due to... 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout accelerates, MSP hikes muted India’s vaccine rollout has shifted into a higher gear over the past couple of weeks, but the slow start means that it would still take several months before a large majority of the population is... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
