India Economics Update MPC fault lines emerge, but doves still in control The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s October policy meeting suggest greater divergence of opinion within the MPC, with two members calling for more definitive steps towards policy normalisation. But most... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Billionth vaccine masks worrying slowdown in rollout India this week administered its billionth COVID-19 vaccine dose, but that figure masks a worrying recent slowdown in the vaccination drive. And as a share of the population, the number of fully... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack RBI in no hurry to withdraw policy support The latest activity data suggest that India's recovery has entered a slower phase, with global supply shortages starting to weigh on the economy too. In addition, India’s vaccination coverage remains... 20th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Supply shortages take their toll The supply shortages that have affected many DMs have also intensified in emerging economies over the past couple of months. The automotive sector has been hit hard by global semiconductor shortages... 18th October 2021 · 9 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations may not help EM equities outperform We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. 18th October 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Industry stalling as services reopens further The impact of global semiconductor shortages on India’s auto sector was evident in the lacklustre industrial production data for August released this week. And with energy supply constraints also... 15th October 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Burgeoning trade deficit is not a major concern The sharp widening in India’s goods trade deficit in September was driven in part by an unusually large jump in oil imports that we think will prove a one-off. And with the economic recovery entering... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) Headline WPI inflation dropped to a five-month low in September on the back of a fall in food and fuel inflation, both of which are likely to continue easing. And with the recent drop in consumer... 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped further below the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s inflation target range in September, and we expect it to remain there for several more months. That’s one reason to... 12th October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Recovery enters a slower phase Following a rapid rebound from the second virus wave, India’s economy is beginning to lose some steam. And with vaccination coverage still low, downside risks remain significant. Under these... 11th October 2021 · 20 mins read
India Economics Update Rate hikes remain a distant prospect The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and stressed that its latest liquidity-withdrawal measures do not constitute policy tightening. Given our view that the recovery will... 8th October 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal shortage could take steam out of the recovery India is the latest major economy to be facing concerns about energy supply, fuelled by a recent drop in coal inventories. With the economy very reliant on coal for electricity generation, persistent... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Sep.) The buoyant readings in India’s PMI surveys for September add weight to our view that economic output rose back to pre-virus levels in Q3. But the recovery will probably lose momentum over the coming... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) India’s manufacturing PMI rose in September, but that is likely to prove the high point as the rapid reopening rebound fades and local manufacturers start to feel the pinch from global supply... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal boost, employment survey, RBI meeting Relative to budget estimates, tax revenues have been much stronger than normal at this stage of the year, helping to support the fiscal position. That supports our view that Indian bond yields will... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Aug.) Output from India’s core infrastructure industries only edged slightly higher in August, suggesting that the rapid reopening rebound has faded. The broader industrial recovery remains fragile against... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
