India Chart Pack Backsliding on reforms? The repeal this month of controversial reforms aimed at liberalising the agriculture sector is arguably the biggest political setback that the Modi government has faced since coming to power in 2014... 24th November 2021 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sitharaman pleads, Das reassures Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this week made an impassioned plea for the private sector to ramp up investment to support the economic recovery, but we don’t think that firms will heed her call... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus How much scarring will the pandemic leave? The pandemic’s most significant economic legacy in India will be a heavily-damaged banking sector that is likely to constrain investment over the years ahead. This underpins our view that the economy... 17th November 2021 · 18 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The jump in headline wholesale price inflation in October was due almost entirely to higher commodity prices, but we think they are now close to peaking. While the RBI will be wary that wholesale... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Industrial Production (Sep.) India’s consumer price inflation edged up in October but remained well below the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s inflation target range. And we expect it to stay there for several months yet, which underpins... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Energy constraints easing, autos still struggling Concerns about severe energy shortages in India have eased this week amid encouraging signs of a rebound in coal inventories. But the latest production figures from carmakers suggest that global... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Mobile payment takes off The pandemic has triggered a three-fold increase in the use of mobile payments in India. It is unclear whether there has been a corresponding broadening in the number of people using cashless payment... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI liquidity measures, fuel tax cuts Recent measures by the RBI to further drain banking sector liquidity have led some to think that a hike in the reverse repo rate is imminent. But we disagree and think that liquidity-withdrawal... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Oct.) The strength in India’s PMI surveys for October suggests that economic activity continued to hold up well last month. But we still think that the recovery is set to enter a slower phase, and India’s... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply disruptions weigh on EM industry October’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing sectors in Southeast Asia are recovering from recent Covid waves, but supply constraints are taking their toll on industry in China, Brazil and parts of... 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in October paints an upbeat picture of the health of manufacturing, but the recovery remains fragile against the backdrop of persistent global supply shortages... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Annual fiscal deficit will be smaller than budgeted Relative to budget estimates, the cumulative fiscal deficit in rupee terms is much smaller than normal for this time of year, due in large part to decent tax revenues. We think the Finance Ministry... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Sep.) Output from India’s core infrastructure industries dropped in September, providing further signs that the industrial recovery is faltering on the back of supply constraints. 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price risks manageable for now High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India, but prices would have to rise much further than they have recently for that to return as a... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery faces mounting headwinds After what appears to have been a strong Q3, we expect recoveries in many EMs to enter a slower phase as re-opening boosts fade and goods shortages bite. 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
