India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) Headline consumer price inflation soared beyond even our above-consensus forecast in March and, given that it is likely to rise further over the coming months, we think the RBI will start hiking the... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update More thoughts on the RBI’s policy shift The RBI’s policy announcement and the introduction of the Standing Deposit Facility has prompted a number of questions from clients on its intended purpose and what it means for monetary policy. This... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russia relations, LIC IPO, RBI policy stance Relations between India and Russia came under fresh scrutiny this week. But tentative signs that India is beginning to tread more carefully suggest that discounted Russian commodities are now even... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI turning less accommodative The MPC’s unanimous decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 4.00% today came as no surprise but the introduction of a new policy rate that sets a higher floor for the interest rate corridor... 8th April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Mar.) India’s March PMIs show services as the bright spot last month as looser virus restrictions allowed activity to rebound. Unless COVID-19 cases pick up again, the outlook for the services sector... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped back in March as high commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine began to take a toll on the sector. Given that fuel and gas prices have only climbed higher since... 4th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Price pressures are building The main focus next week will be the RBI’s policy announcement on Friday. We think the MPC will leave its policy settings unchanged, but we still expect the committee to ditch its dovish tone later... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Feb.) Output from India’s core infrastructure industries picked up in February as the Omicron wave subsided. But the surge in commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine is likely to squeeze profit... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Growth-focussed MPC will need to tighten before long Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, MPC members have emphasised the need for monetary policy to mitigate the downside risks to economic growth. It therefore seems likely that interest rates will... 30th March 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee-ruble exchange, virus restrictions lifted Indian authorities are in advanced discussions with their Russian counterparts over a rupee-ruble exchange system that would enable the two countries to continue trading even as Russia gets blocked... 25th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Wheat exports, inflation jump, loan moratorium expiry India's wheat exports have soared recently and stand to benefit further from the shock to global supply caused by the war in Ukraine. But the consequences for India's external position will be small... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Ukraine war heightens inflation and external risks The surge in commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine will have several repercussions for India’s economy. As a major net commodity importer, its terms of trade will deteriorate and we think... 17th March 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities at multi-year highs The surge in commodity prices brought about by the war in Ukraine will lead to a deterioration in India’s external position, with the current account deficit widening to almost 4% of GDP this year... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) India’s consumer price inflation breached the RBI’s 6% ceiling in February, sooner than even our relatively hawkish forecasts had suggested. The surge in commodity prices will keep the headline rate... 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Indian wholesale price inflation remained near historic highs in February, and it is likely to stay elevated in the near term given the recent surge in commodity prices. 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) Indian industrial production held steady in m/m terms in January, supporting our view that the Omicron hit to the economy was small. But looking ahead, the surge in commodity prices as a result of the... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
