India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) India’s manufacturing PMI moderated a touch in August but the more important point is that the reading is still consistent with robust growth in the sector. The RBI will remain comfortable tightening... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) Base effects caused a surge in headline Indian GDP growth in Q2 (Q1 of FY22/23), but underlying growth slowed relative to Q1. As a result, GDP growth won’t reach 9% in 2022 as we had thought. That... 31st August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus Rupee to reverse course this decade The Indian rupee has continued its long-run trend of depreciation against the US dollar this year, taking it to a record low of 80/$. It may still weaken further in the near term. However, there are... 31st August 2022 · 17 mins read
India Chart Pack Economy holding up amid policy tightening GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY22/23) due next week should show that the economy grew at a robust pace last quarter despite the onset of monetary policy tightening. And more timely indicators suggest that... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Surging capital inflows unlikely to be sustained Foreigners’ net purchases of Indian equities have surged to near record levels in recent weeks, helping to fuel the strong rally in the Sensex. We doubt that this can be sustained as global policy... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation to fall back only gradually We now expect CPI inflation to fall back to the 6% ceiling of the RBI's target range by the end of the year as food and energy inflation drags the headline rate lower. But beyond that, we still expect... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) The fall in Indian wholesale price inflation in July reflects easing wholesale food inflation and lower commodity prices. But given both WPI and CPI inflation are still elevated, we think the RBI will... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Prospects for female labour participation in India We agree with PM Modi’s assertion in his Independence Day speech over the weekend that boosting female participation in the labour force could have a major positive impact on the economy, but in truth... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) The bigger-than-expected drop in inflation in July is a challenge to our view that the MPC will hike the repo rate by 50bps again next month. But core inflation remains pretty strong, and the... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Political wranglings weaken BJP’s hand For all its power in parliament’s lower house (Lok Sabha), a majority in the upper house (Rajya Sabha) has remained elusive for PM Modi’s BJP. As the main party in the National Democratic Alliance... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Exports coming off the boil, RBI continues frontloading Data released this week show that Indian exporters are not immune from the broad weakening in demand as the global growth outlooks deteriorates. Meanwhile, the RBI continued frontloading policy... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has further to run The RBI today raised the repo rate by 50bps to 5.40% as we had anticipated, and struck a relatively hawkish tone despite inflation surprising to the downside in recent months. It’s clear that the... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Jul.) India’s July PMIs show a reversal of the recent outperformance of services. That said, both the services and composite PMIs remain high by pre-pandemic standards, pointing to growth continuing to hold... 3rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI was remarkably strong in July, with domestic demand supporting activity despite a negative global backdrop. The rebound will give the RBI more confidence to hike by 50bps... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) Favourable base effects kept y/y growth in India’s core infrastructure industries elevated in June. But once those base effects are removed, it’s clear that the industrial sector is entering a weaker... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly More left in the locker The drop in FX reserves to the lowest level in almost two years has raised concerns in some quarters that the RBI’s policy of FX intervention to slow the depreciation of the rupee is not sustainable... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
