India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharper-than-expected drop in headline CPI inflation in November (to 5.9% y/y) pulls it below the ceiling of the Reserve Bank’s 2-6% target range for the first time in almost a year. We maintain... 12th December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Gujarat election, semiconductors, Q1 Outlook The BJP’s huge win in the Gujarat state election could convince the ruling national party that it currently has enough electoral clout to push ahead with difficult structural reforms. Meanwhile... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economic Outlook End of tightening in sight The RBI has slowed the pace of rate hikes and is likely to call a halt to tightening in early 2023. As the economy weakens, rate cuts could come onto the agenda by late next year and materialise in... 8th December 2022 · 19 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle drawing to a close The RBI slowed the pace of monetary tightening with a 35bp hike to the repo rate (to 6.25%) and, with headline inflation set to ease further and growth entering a softer patch, we think the central... 7th December 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sensex outperformance, activity data, RBI meeting India’s Sensex hit a fresh record high this week, continuing its remarkable performance over the past few months. However, high valuations may limit its outperformance over the coming years. Next week... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged up in November and continues to buck the weaker regional trend. The survey also indicates that price pressures are easing, reinforcing our view that the RBI is now in a... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) While base effects caused a sharp slowdown in headline GDP growth in India in Q3 (Q2 of FY22/23), growth held up well in quarter-on-quarter terms. However, there are signs in more timely activity data... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Pace of tightening likely to slow With inflation having passed the peak and domestic demand showing signs of softening, we expect the MPC to slow the pace of monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to the repo rate at the conclusion of... 29th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Valuations may limit the outperformance of Indian equities We think the stretched valuations of Indian equities compared to those elsewhere will prevent the standout performance of Indian equities seen so far in 2022 being sustained over the longer run. China... 28th November 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why the Gujarat election matters for investors State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Gujarat arguably holds more significance than most others. It is the manufacturing powerhouse of the country and, linked to... 25th November 2022 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Higher rates feeding through to real economy The RBI has hiked interest rates by 190bps since May and, while that is relatively benign compared to the moves seen in many other EMs, this tightening is now feeding through to the economy. Purchases... 21st November 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Signs of domestic demand softening There are signs in the latest data that domestic demand is softening, though not to the extent that it should raise alarm at the central bank. This reinforces our view that the tightening cycle still... 18th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: US-China relations, regional elections and more 1669276800 November's briefing on Asia’s big macro and market stories included discussion of US-China relations in the wake of the Xi-Biden meeting as well as the economic impact of Beijing’s looser zero-COVI
India Data Response Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The substantial falls in both headline consumer and wholesale price inflation in October reinforce our view that the Reserve Bank will slow the pace of monetary tightening in its next scheduled policy... 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Industrial production in India rebounded strongly in September, but we don’t expect this strength to last. Higher interest rates and the slowdown in global demand look set to weigh heavily on the... 11th November 2022 · 2 mins read
