India Economics Weekly

MPC shake-up suggests no October rate cut

Confirmation that the two most dovish members of the MPC will be stepping down before the RBI's next policy meeting in October strengthens our view that the panel won't vote to cut rates in that...

30th August 2024 · 4 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (August 2024)

The economy is on course to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years. Headline CPI...

27th August 2024 · 1 min read

FX Markets Update

We think Asian currencies’ rallies will slow, not stop

We expect most Asian currencies to make further gains against the US dollar over time, even if their biggest rallies may now be behind them.

27th August 2024 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Debate over inflation target misses the point

A longstanding debate in Indian policymaking circles over which measure of consumer price inflation - headline or core - the RBI should target has been reignited in recent weeks. But the more...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

SEBI in Hindenburg’s crosshairs, Sino-Indian relations

The Adani Group/Hindenburg Research saga took a new twist this week as the US short-seller alleged that India's markets regulator, SEBI, had a major conflict of interests in investigating the...

16th August 2024 · 3 mins read

India Economics Update

What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing

Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs...

13th August 2024 · 5 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024)

The drop in headline consumer price inflation to a one-year low in July should reassure the RBI that June’s surprise jump was a one-off and that the disinflationary trend remains intact. We therefore...

12th August 2024 · 2 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Questions for the RBI in the rupee’s decline

The rupee was one of only a few currencies to weaken against the dollar this week. Could a lack of investor confidence in the currency pose problems in the months ahead for the RBI?

9th August 2024 · 5 mins read

India Economics Update

RBI to ease policy by year-end

The recent market turmoil didn’t move the needle for the MPC today: it continued to strike a hawkish tone as the majority of members voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But with inflation...

8th August 2024 · 3 mins read

India Rapid Response

RBI Policy Announcement (Aug. 2024)

The recent market turmoil didn’t move the needle for the MPC today: it continued to strike a hawkish tone as the majority of members voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But with inflation...

8th August 2024 · 2 mins read

India Economics Weekly

RBI’s bond restrictions, policy meeting preview

The RBI's surprise move this week to restrict foreign access in some long-dated sovereign bonds highlights the bumpy path for foreign investors as policymakers balance a push for more overseas...

2nd August 2024 · 3 mins read

RBI Watch

Policy loosening to begin by year-end

The upside inflation surprise in June means it is all but guaranteed that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on Thursday 8th...

1st August 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Modi gets the memo on employment

The FY24/25 Union Budget this week showed a shift in the government's focus towards improving employment, likely in response to the BJP's underwhelming performance in the general election. While a...

26th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Markets Update

India’s budget no boon for the country’s bonds & stocks

Strong public investment growth alongside overall fiscal prudence have contributed to the rallies in India’s bond and stock markets over the past couple of years. However, we don’t see much in the...

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (July 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on...

24th July 2024 · 1 min read