Event Asia Drop-In: The latest on China’s reopening, Asian monetary policy, and markets 26th January 2023, 8:00AM GMT China’s shift from zero-COVID is the big Asia story of the moment and our economists gave an update on what this means for the region’s growth outlook, including how quickly outbound tourism is...
India Chart Pack Global fracturing: India tilts further away from China India has historically remained unaligned geopolitically but we made the case last year that, in a fracturing global economy, it was more likely to lean towards a US-led bloc and away from a China-led... 18th January 2023 · 9 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) The drop in Indian wholesale price inflation for the sixth month in a row in December further reinforces our view that the MPC will draw the tightening cycle to a close after one more rate hike in its... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee policies: solutions in need of problems Policymakers in India have been talking up prospects for the rupee settlement mechanism as well as the recently-piloted central bank digital currency, the so-called "e-rupee". But while there are... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The further easing in headline CPI inflation in December to a 12-month low of 5.7% y/y supports our view that the tightening cycle is in its final throes. We expect just one more hike in the repo rate... 12th January 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Another look at the PMI conundrum The PMI surveys for December released this week suggest that India’s economy was firing on all cylinders at the end of 2022. But they are at odds with several other indicators that point to a slowdown... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Dec.) India’s manufacturing and services PMI readings rose to multi-month highs in December but are at odds with the hard activity data that point to a slowdown in domestic and external demand. 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities to ease a touch in 2023 India’s current account deficit is likely to have widened to 3% of GDP in 2022, the largest in a decade. We expect the deficit to narrow slightly in 2023 as commodity prices ease and domestic demand... 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (Dec.) Manufacturing PMIs across the region rose slightly in December but remained weak overall. We continue to expect weaker global demand, high inflation and interest rates to drag on manufacturing ahead. 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three key questions for 2023 In our final Weekly of 2022 we explore three key themes for the coming year – when policy loosening will come onto the agenda, whether there are further signs of a growing electronics ecosystem, and... 23rd December 2022 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Government could up the pace of reform in 2023 The government’s reform agenda struggled for momentum in 2022 as key state elections (notably in Uttar Pradesh in March and Gujarat in December) dominated the calendar, and surging food and fuel... 20th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Lending rates playing catch up Data released this week reinforce our view that domestic demand is softening in response to higher interest rates. And with the rise in lending rates still having further to run to fully reflect the... 16th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) The fall in Indian wholesale price inflation to a 21-month low in November chimes with the sharper-than-expected drop in headline consumer price inflation released earlier this week. We maintain our... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Rate cuts in 2023 as growth slows Economic growth will slow sharply in most of the region in 2023 as higher interest rates and weaker exports drag on demand. Our GDP growth forecasts are below consensus in most countries. With... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
