Long Run Economic Outlook Fracturing to reshape the global economic system The Ukraine war has added to the forces reshaping the global economic system into two US-led and China-led economic spheres. While the economic diversity of the US-bloc should help it to adapt... 13th February 2023 · 1 hr, 10 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpectedly large jump in headline consumer price inflation in January to 6.5% y/y is a clear challenge to our view that the hiking cycle is at an end. Further signs of the economy coming off the... 13th February 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Adani spill-over risks, RBI cautious on inflation Contagion risks from the Adani saga look contained for now; foreign equity outflows have been small and there has been no widening in corporate bond spreads. However, we don't share the RBI's optimism... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We still expect Indian equities to lag The Adani saga hasn’t done much to reduce the comparatively stretched valuation of India’s stock market. In our view, that means there is still scope for it to underperform over the long run. In view... 9th February 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI unlikely to tighten policy any further The RBI further slowed the pace of monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to the repo rate (to 6.50%) today and, though it has left the door ajar for further tightening, the softer growth outlook and... 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Budget has an eye on the long term While some of the measures unveiled in the FY23/24 Union Budget are geared towards shoring up popular support ahead of next year’s general election, there is a clear long-term focus too. The projected... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Is the Adani crisis a macro concern? The short-seller attack on the Adani Group has continued to dominate the headlines this week. From the macro perspective there are few signs of contagion, with equities up slightly on the week in... 3rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks well placed to face rising loan losses EM banks will face an increase in loan losses this year, but the good news is that banking sectors on the whole appear well-placed to absorb these, particularly in parts of Latin America, Emerging... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
RBI Watch MPC to signal the end of tightening cycle With inflation now having clearly passed the peak and domestic demand showing signs of softening, we think the MPC will mark the end of the tightening cycle with a final 25bp hike to the repo rate (to... 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry strikes a delicate balance Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman appears to have successfully demonstrated her long-term commitment of reining in the fiscal deficit while still providing support to the economy in today’s FY23/24... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) India’s manufacturing PMI showed signs of moderation in January after defying gravity for several months previously. It should drop further over the coming months as the economy comes off the boil. 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: What China’s re-opening means for emerging markets 1675350000 China has made an abrupt shift away from zero-COVID, prompting a wave of market euphoria – and some anxiety – about a surge in demand.
India Economics Weekly What to expect from the Union Budget For watchers of India’s economy, next week is one of the most significant of the year as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivers the Union Budget for FY23/24 on Wednesday. This is the last full... 27th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Answers to your questions on the outlook for Em Asia We held a Drop-In today to discuss the big economic and financial market development across Emerging Asia. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we couldn’t... 26th January 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Electronics optimism, fracturing, vehicle sales drop There are more signs of a growing electronics ecosystem in India. This week, around a dozen suppliers to Apple’s international operations received clearance to expand into the country. And comments... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
