India Chart Pack Vulnerabilities lurk in the banking sector Spill-overs from the turmoil in the global banking system to India have been limited so far, but the big unknown is whether difficulties will flare up at home. Bank problems can arise via multiple... 22nd March 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting credit risks Spillovers from the global banking crisis to EMs appear limited so far. Encouragingly, too, most EM banks appear to be well placed to weather a period of rising non-performing loans resulting from... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Near-term softness, long-term optimism The RBI’s tightening cycle is in its final throes and, as the economy softens and inflation drops back to within the central bank’s 2-6% target range, we think rates cuts will materialise in early... 20th March 2023 · 20 mins read
India Economics Weekly SVB and Credit Suisse fallout, April rate hike For India, the fallout from the SVB collapse and Credit Suisse crisis has been limited. The big unknown is whether banking sector problems will flare up elsewhere. At the aggregate level, the Indian... 17th March 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The slight drop in headline CPI inflation in February won’t have been enough to ease the concerns of the hawks on the MPC and, as a result, we now expect another 25bp hike to the repo rate (to 6.75%)... 13th March 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) Growth in industrial production picked up in January, supporting our view that Q4 will have marked the trough for q/q growth. Nevertheless, the outlook for the industrial sector over the coming months... 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal shortages remain a key downside risk Efforts to improve the stability of coal supply have had some success over the past 18 months but shortages remain a key downside risk to the economic outlook. The upcoming summer months could be a... 10th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the struggles for equities in India will resume We think MSCI’s India Index will fall over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms, amid subdued domestic economic activity and a general deterioration in investors’ appetite for “risky”... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Making sense of the activity data The economy appears to have held up a touch better than we had anticipated at the start of this year, mirroring the trend in several other major economies. Q4 is likely to have marked the trough for q... 3rd March 2023 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading edged down in February to a four-month low. We expect the reading to drop further over the coming months as both external and domestic demand soften. 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) GDP data for Q4 (Q3 of FY22/23) show that India’s economy came off the boil at the end of last year as higher interest rates weighed on household consumption and investment. But with the hawks still... 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly MPC fault lines, shifting consensus, GDP data With the MPC minutes from this month's RBI meeting underlining that the hawks remain in the ascendancy, the temptation is to forecast further monetary tightening. Indeed, the consensus has shifted... 24th February 2023 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Adani spill-over risks: not out of the woods yet In a crowded field given the FY23/24 Union Budget and the RBI’s more-hawkish-than-expected policy announcement, the Adani short-selling crisis has been the main story over the past month. So far at... 21st February 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM investment: weak outlook and clear divergence EM investment surged far above pre-pandemic levels last year, but there was a clear divergence across countries and we think investment growth will slow in 2023. One worrying development is that... 20th February 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation jump may be less worrying than it seems The January CPI data released this week made for uncomfortable reading, but may be less worrying than they first appear. A bottom-up look at the components of the food basket suggest that the rate of... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus Unlocking India's demographic potential If it isn't already, India will soon be the world’s most populous nation. But this doesn’t mean that policymakers can simply wait for the economic benefits to arrive. The key to unlocking India’s... 15th February 2023 · 14 mins read
