Asia Economics Update India starts fiscal consolidation, higher rates will be next Q4 GDP growth published today came in far weaker than expected but the slowdown will be short. Today’s FY10-11 budget aims to cut the fiscal deficit, which is good news. Private sector spending is... 26th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Upswings to stay impressive for a while (Q1 10) The trade-dependent economies will eventually see slower GDP growth later this year and in 2011 as the global upswing loses momentum. But Asia’s rebound will not come to a complete halt and growth, by... 19th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India will hike policy rates soon The surge in January wholesale prices, published today, means that it is a near-certainty that India will raise policy interest rates at the next monetary policy review in April. The chance of an... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India set to lift rates at the end of January The surge in December wholesale prices, published today, means that it is now a near-certainty that India will tighten monetary policy later this month. A hike in the cash reserve requirement already... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s impressive upswing to stay on track India’s Q3 GDP, published today, surprised on the upside with manufacturing and services leading the way. The upswing will almost certainly stay strong and, as we have long signposted, policy rates... 30th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Decoupling is back (Q4 09) We expect the upswing in emerging Asia to stay relatively strong in coming quarters. The more trade-dependent economies will be held back by the long drawn-out recoveries that are likely in the US and... 24th November 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What should we make of India’s gold purchases? The news that the Reserve Bank of India has bought gold from the IMF has been interpreted as very bullish for gold prices and bearish for the dollar. Neither is necessarily true: holdings of US... 4th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India will hike soon India’s Reserve Bank (RBI) kept its key policy rates unchanged today, but also put the markets on notice to expect monetary tightening soon. Worries about the recovery are diminishing fast and the RBI... 27th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian rupee on a roll that looks set to continue The rupee has climbed 3% against the US dollar over the last few days which, by recent standards, is a big move. We have long expected the appreciation and more looks on the way as India’s balance of... 7th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Indian bond yields will rise further next year Investors are becoming increasingly convinced that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be one of the first central banks in Asia to begin hiking rates. However, we still think they may be... 17th September 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PMIs point to continued momentum in emerging Asia 1st September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Poor monsoon will not derail India’s recovery Strong June industrial output adds to the evidence that India’s recovery will be sustained and probably rapid. The poor 2009 monsoon is a wildcard but, at worst, GDP growth this year should only be 0... 12th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India turns its mind to inflation risks India’s central bank is increasingly concerned about inflation risks, raising the likelihood that it will hike interest rates before the end of the year. 28th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus India set to come back strongly India’s 2008-09 slowdown seems to have been a short pause rather than anything more serious. The economy is picking up again and a long period of sustained high GDP growth looks likely. Current... 10th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s budget: Going for growth, cautious on reform India’s Federal Budget announced today focused on keeping GDP growth on its improving track. The budget deficit and debt issuance target are at the high end of market expectations. 6th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's Reserve Bank easing looks over The unexpected strength of April industrial output adds to the evidence that India’s slowdown has passed its worst point. GDP growth should accelerate during the rest of 2009. Weak inflation pressures... 12th June 2009 · 1 min read
