Global Markets Outlook We expect near-term pain for equities, but medium-term gain We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
India Economics Weekly Strengthening of India-US ties to boost manufacturing The sweeping agreements on trade and defence announced during Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US this week underline that India’s government and firms increasingly see their interests as favouring... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Slower growth, falling inflation and interest rate cuts GDP growth has slowed sharply across most of Emerging Asia since the middle of last year and looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity... 22nd June 2023 · 34 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jun 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 20th June 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Q3 Outlook, inflation plunge, policy pivot? The overarching message from our Q3 India Outlook is that policy rate cuts will soon come on to the agenda as the economy enters a mild slowdown and inflation settles at comfortable rates over the... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts will soon come onto the agenda The RBI’s tightening cycle has come to an end and, as the economy comes off the boil and inflation settles at comfortable rates, we think interest rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the... 12th June 2023 · 20 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) Headline consumer price inflation fell to a 25-month low in May and is likely to remain within the RBI’s 2-6% target range for the foreseeable future. That means the tightening cycle won’t need... 12th June 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI stands pat, MSP hikes, India-US defence ties The RBI didn’t throw up any surprises this week when it kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% and maintained a hawkish tone. But recent developments related to minimum support prices and monsoon rains... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Next move in policy rates likely to be down The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold (at 6.50%) today comes as no surprise given the recent sharp drop in inflation. The central bank continues to strike a hawkish tone and the door... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Resilient economy does not make case for tightening The strength of the recent activity data means we are revising up our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 6.3%, from 6.0%. But given that inflation has come down a long way from its peak last year and is now... 2nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
RBI Watch RBI is done tightening; cuts to come onto agenda soon We think the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 8th June. And while the door will be kept ajar for a resumption in the hiking cycle over the coming months, we... 1st June 2023 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) India’s manufacturing PMI reading rose in May to a 31-month high and points to very healthy growth in the sector. But the survey also shows that price pressures are well past the peak, supporting our... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) GDP data for Q1 (Q4 of FY22/23) show that India’s economy rebounded at the start of the year. But with higher interest rates still feeding through and fiscal policy turning slightly less supportive... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus India and the physical risks from climate change India’s economy is one of the most vulnerable in the world to the physical effects of climate change. Climate change alone won’t stop relatively rapid rates of growth over the coming decades. But it... 31st May 2023 · 12 mins read
India Economics Weekly Demonetisation redux? The RBI's announcement that it is withdrawing the INR2,000 note is likely to have evoked memories of the shock demonetisation exercise in 2016. But the economic impact should be much more limited this... 26th May 2023 · 5 mins read
