Global Economics Focus How well will growth in emerging economies hold up? Emerging Asia and Latin America should continue to grow relatively fast even if the euro-zone slides into prolonged recession, as long as the US avoids the same fate. The outlook for emerging Europe... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation drops further The drop in inflation to 6.6% y/y in January results primarily from base effects and falling food prices. Nevertheless, there is sufficient evidence that underlying inflationary pressure has eased for... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s buoyant labour markets Asia’s rapid economic rebound following the 2008-09 global crisis has led to sharp falls in unemployment over the past couple of years. This has raised hopes that robust household spending will... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How much will weak export demand weigh on Asia? Exports from Asia have weakened significantly in recent months. Not only are they contracting in y/y terms in many countries, but they have slowed much more sharply compared with other emerging... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs signal industrial slowdown has abated Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) improved for four out of the five economies in Asia (outside Japan and China) for which they were released today. This suggests that the slowdown in industrial... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth prospects - where we differ from consensus As the IMF released its latest forecasts yesterday and we published our Global Economic Outlook last week, this seems a good time to take stock of how our forecasts compare with others. Overall... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India cautious on rate cuts The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its cash reserve requirement today but left the repo rate on hold. The hawkish tone of the policy statement suggests that, although rate cuts are surely coming... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia's equities outperform in early 2012 Emerging Asia’s equities have risen by more than the global average so far this year, but we do not expect the outperformance to last. Stock markets in Asia typically underperform developed markets... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation has further to fall Inflation rose sharply in 2011 as a whole relative to 2010 across the region. However, we expect below-trend growth and lower commodity prices to pull down inflation significantly this year. With... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s headline inflation falls but rate cut unlikely before March Data released today show a big drop in headline inflation, to 7.5% y/y in December. But the key measure of core inflation fell only slightly. Consequently, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to wait... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy stimulus to support growth in Asia The ongoing debt crisis in the euro-zone is likely to weigh on growth in Asia in 2012-13. Although the region’s most open economies are set to slow quite sharply, we forecast that growth in the region... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Elections in Asia - what they mean for the region A number of important elections and leadership changes are due to take place across emerging Asia over the next 12 months. The outcomes will have implications for economic policymaking and growth... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia PMIs paint mixed picture December PMIs for Asia paint a mixed picture. The surveys suggest manufacturing output returned to growth in Australia, while in contrast to the weakness of recent data, factory output rebounded... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How bad is the outlook for Indian growth? India’s economy has slowed abruptly in the past few months and now faces a downturn comparable to that of 2008-09. However, a big difference is that the authorities now have much less scope for policy... 26th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India prepares ground for rate cuts as economy slows Although it left its repo rate unchanged at today’s meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signalled that it is preparing the ground to loosen policy earlier than previously expected. We now think... 16th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Exports weaken amid global slowdown Exports from the region have been weak due to lower demand from the West. However, domestic demand has so far remained fairly resilient across the region. Central banks in Australia and Thailand have... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
