India Economics Update RBI unlikely to panic over rupee sell-off India has not been immune to the turbulence that has hit EM markets over the past few days in the wake of the unfolding crisis in Russia. This has led to suggestions that the RBI is now likely to... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets raise expectations of rate cuts The recent sharp slowdown in inflation, combined with dovish commentary from the RBI in its policy review earlier this month, have prompted India’s financial markets to price in the rising likelihood... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Nov.) India’s trade deficit widened in November as a pick-up in exports wasn’t enough to offset a renewed surge in gold imports. But the overall deficit still remains at sustainable levels, and should... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Wholesale price data for November out today provide more evidence of disinflationary pressures following the release of last month’s CPI data on Friday, and build on the case for the RBI to begin... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) Today’s data show that consumer price inflation dropped to its slowest pace on record in November. With the latest numbers also showing continued weakness in industrial output, the case for policy... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reforming the coal sector remains a difficult prospect The likely part-privatisation of Coal India early next year shows that there is some appetite within government to reform the sector. But this is only a small step towards addressing a myriad of... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set for another sharp fall Continued steep declines in food and fuel prices, as well as subdued core pressures, mean that consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped to a record low in November. This should bolster calls... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Current Account (Q3) Data released today show that India’s current account deficit widened again in Q3, but we doubt that policymakers will be too concerned. 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Easing FDI restrictions are a small step in the right direction The decision this week to lift restrictions on FDI into the construction sector is another indication of the government’s willingness to address India’s investment needs. But even so, there is still a... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update How much does India stand to benefit from falling oil prices? India is one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, but the sharp fall in global oil prices is unlikely toboost the economy by as much as might be expected. Retail prices haven’t fallen by much... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds fire, but paves the way for imminent rate cuts RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan kept both the repo and the reverse repo rates on hold at 8.00% and 7.00% respectively today, but the accompanying statement suggests that rate cuts are likely as soon as at... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) India’s manufacturing PMI increased in November, but conditions are still subdued by past standards. Looking ahead, with progress on creating a favourable business environment remaining slow, the... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to make of the removal of gold import restrictions The RBI today announced the removal of restrictions on gold imports, and the withdrawal of the “20:80” rule which dictates that 20% of gold imports must be re-exported. There are no further details or... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) Q3 GDP data released today underline that the economy has remained lacklustre in the early stages of PM Modi’s tenure, and add to the case for the RBI to begin cutting interest rates as soon as at... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Three priorities for parliament’s winter session The government’s reform agenda has recently gathered momentum, but progress in a number of the most important areas has so far been underwhelming. Breakthroughs in some of these areas should be... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Will the rupee prevent policy loosening? Markets seem certain that the RBI will keep interest rates on hold next week, but we are not so sure. Inflation has fallen much further than most had expected, GDP growth is still weak by past... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
