India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) India’s manufacturing PMI is again defying gravity, recording one of its highest readings in the past 13 years in August. It’s clear that the economy has been very resilient in recent months but we’d... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response GDP (Q2) The GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY23/24) confirm a resilient first half of the year for India’s economy in the face of the RBI’s policy tightening. More timely data point to a slight cooling in growth but... 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Moon landing, BRICS expanding, GDP withstanding Headlines in India this week have been dominated by the successful Chandrayaan-3 mission to the south pole of the moon. Second to that was the BRICS summit, which concluded with an announcement that... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five key themes from the BRICS summit Efforts by the BRICS group to demonstrate an image of unity and cooperation were on full show at this week’s summit, but – aside from membership expansion – policy proposals were light and not overly... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Focus Mapping India’s energy demand and emissions The government’s ambition of developing a globally-competitive manufacturing sector, combined with relatively slow progress on shifting away from using coal for electricity production, means India... 23rd August 2023 · 12 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jul.) Global steel production will probably continue to edge lower in the next few months, following the latest month-on-month decline revealed by the WSA today. Crucially, we think that steel demand will... 22nd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Ambition collides with reality at the BRICS summit China’s push to develop the BRICS bloc into a geo-political counterweight to the G7 is likely to be thwarted by the competing interests and priorities of other member states. Nonetheless, positioning... 21st August 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee hits an all-time low, new inflation forecasts The rupee dropped to an all-time low of 83.1/$ on Thursday and the depreciation this week may have been larger had the RBI not stepped up its FX intervention. The good news is that the central bank is... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 17th August 2023 · 1 min read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Headline consumer price inflation accelerated to a 15-month high of 7.4% y/y in July amid the surge in food price inflation. While the RBI expects the sharp increase in food prices to prove transitory... 14th August 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI cautious, government aims to cool food price rise The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% as expected this week and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. And while several policy measures announced by the government this... 11th August 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI maintains hawkish tone amid food price surge The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. It’s unlikely that the rate hiking cycle will restart. But there is a... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: how are they likely to shape up? Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil and Chile have fuelled talk of a broad-based EM easing cycle and we expect most EM central banks to start cutting rates in Q4 or Q1. We expect those with the... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Government capex boom, RBI to dial up hawkishness All eyes will be on the RBI's policy decision on Thursday, which has become less of a formality given the surge in food prices. We still think that the central bank will keep the repo rate on hold at... 4th August 2023 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch Food inflation surge muddies the policymaking waters The recent surge in food price inflation means the RBI’s policy decision on Thursday 10 th August is now less of a formality than it had appeared. On balance, we still think that the MPC will keep the... 2nd August 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update India’s rice export ban: a food security warning shot? We think the price of rice is set to climb after India’s additional rice export restrictions have exacerbated global shortage concerns. For now, though, we don’t expect other major producers to follow... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
