India Economics Update Remittance inflows set to remain strong Concerns about destabilising capital flows to emerging markets such as India have again come to the fore, but one factor that often gets overlooked is the role of overseas remittances. Remittance... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Wholesale price inflation dropped further into negative territory in February to its lowest rate since the series began in 2005. This was in part due to falling oil prices, but low core inflation... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Industrial Production (Jan.) Consumer price inflation picked up in February, having already increased sharply since late 2014. But the rebound has been driven entirely by food prices. Core inflation remains low and flat. The... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Current Account (Q4) India’s current account deficit narrowed in Q4 and remains far smaller than in 2013 when the rupee plunged to record lows against the US dollar. With this improvement set to be maintained, there is... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What should we look at if we don’t trust the GDP data? The recent revisions to historic GDP data have been the source of much confusion, not least within the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In this Update, we look at four indicators that the RBI appears to... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fragile five whittled down to three The fragile five have been whittled down to three as economic reforms have helped to reduce the vulnerability of the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah to the recent bout of emerging market currency... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Can the RBI meet its new inflation targets? Forthcoming consumer price inflation data for February should show that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remains on course to meet its target for the start of 2016, which has now been formalised under... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for India’s financial markets? Despite the prospect of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), we forecast that the country’s stock market will end this year barely any higher than it is now. On a more... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Governor Rajan makes case for loosening to continue The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to cut its policy rates today was unscheduled but not entirely a surprise: we had argued that there was a significant chance of an inter-meeting cut following the... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government’s capital spending plans face hurdles The Finance Ministry’s plans outlined in the Budget to significantly ramp up capital expenditure are to be welcomed, but fully implementing them will be a tough challenge. Potential impediments... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New monetary framework a positive, but doesn’t alter big picture Although the new monetary policy framework agreed upon by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government is a positive step, it is also largely symbolic. The framework is unlikely to have much... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FY15/16 budget: Finance Ministry strikes a balancing act The FY15/16 budget unveiled over the weekend contained no fireworks but included measured steps to boost public investment while also ensuring fiscal prudence. The key now is for the budget to be... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Outlook for metals brightening Metals prices have shown some of the largest gains in the past week, benefitting from some better news on the global economy including stronger manufacturing PMI surveys in China and the euro-zone... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Indian budget likely to be a small positive for gold The Indian government’s budget, to be unveiled this weekend, is widely expected to include a cut in the import duty on gold. This should provide a further boost to the local market following... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Slim hopes for land reform Amid the wider interest in what will be unveiled in the FY15/16 budget on Saturday, prospects for the rest of the current session of parliament have slipped under the radar. A number of issues that... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about deflation? Emerging Asia has seen a sharp drop in inflationary pressures over the past few months. Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand are now experiencing deflation, while inflation is 1% y/y or below in Malaysia... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
