India Economics Update Equities retreat on domestic concerns India’s financial markets have struggled relative to their emerging market peers over the past few weeks, with the rupee weakening, bond yields edging up and the equity rally losing steam. These moves... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Two years after the taper tantrum: how does India fare now? Two years ago this month the rupee entered a prolonged plunge against the US dollar amid the “taper tantrum”, eventually falling to an all-time low. But in the event of external financing conditions... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reality check for reform agenda Recent failures to amend the domestic tax system and land acquisition laws are the latest examples of the government's reform agenda running into roadblocks over the past few months. This supports our... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) Wholesale price inflation recorded another large drop in April, to its lowest rate since the series began in 2005. Importantly, as the consumer price data released on Tuesday also showed, core... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) The drop in consumer price inflation in April was due in large part to a decline in food price pressures, but perhaps the more significant point for the Reserve Bank is that core inflation remains low... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reserve Bank on course to meet 2016 inflation target Inflation is likely to have remained subdued by past standards in April, with a small pick-up in transport inflation being offset by muted food and core price pressures. The big picture is that the... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped in April, underpinning the difficulties facing the sector. Looking ahead, with progress on creating a favourable business environment remaining slow, a boom in... 4th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee weakness unlikely to concern policymakers The rupee was one of the worst performing EM currencies against the US dollar in April, but we doubt that this will cause panic among India’s policymakers. Over a longer time horizon the rupee remains... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Investment activity tentatively bouncing back The government’s plans to boost capital expenditure, along with looser monetary policy, should help to support the recent pick-up in investment activity over the coming months. But continued... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Slow out of the blocks Emerging Asia has made a weak start to the year. The headlines have been grabbed by China's slowdown but, a few positive signs from India aside, there has been little cause for cheer around the rest... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The implications of a weak monsoon Forecasts for a weaker-than-normal monsoon in India this year have raised concerns about the effect on the wider economy. Although lower rainfall could affect GDP growth and inflation at the margin... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Signs of continued cyclical weakness Some of the latest data out of India have given reason for cheer, but there is plenty of evidence of continued cyclical weakness. For example, capacity utilisation rates are low, growth in sales of... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equity rally losing steam After touching record highs in early March, Indian equities have fallen back in recent weeks. Looking ahead, with valuations still looking stretched and uncertainty over the government’s tax policy... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update How much of a threat is the surge in gold imports? The surge in gold imports last month is likely to have been boosted by temporary factors, including an unleashing of pent-up demand by buyers that had been expecting tax cuts (which didn’t materialise... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Mar.) Data released today show that India’s trade deficit widened in March, but remained at sustainable levels. The more worrying aspect is the collapse in exports, which leaves the government’s longer term... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Uncertainty over tax policy could stifle private investment Comments from Finance Minister Arun Jaitley that he plans to raise nearly US$6.5bn by retrospectively taxing foreign companies would, if acted upon, represent a major relapse on economic reforms, and... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
