India Economics Update Upbeat outlook for remittances The prospects of “Grexit” and interest rate hikes in the US have cast a spotlight on the potential for shifts in capital flows to destabilise emerging markets such as India. One factor that often gets... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation was broadly unchanged in June, remaining firmly in negative territory and close to its lowest rate since the series began. Importantly, core inflation fell further, pointing... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) June’s rise in consumer price inflation was primarily the result of a sharp fall in food prices a year ago rather than any recent increase in inflation pressures. It should not put the Reserve Bank... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (May) The weakening of India’s industrial production in May reinforces our view that, despite recent signs of recovery, the sector continues to face significant headwinds. 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Familiar constraints could stall rise in public investment There are signs that the government’s plans to ramp up public investment over the coming years are bearing fruit. However, it is early days and, looking ahead, fully implementing the plans will be a... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Pick-up in food inflation should prove fleeting Inflation is likely to have picked up in June. The knee-jerk response may be to link it to the monsoon, but the rise in headline inflation is due more to the collapse in food prices a year ago... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Market stability highlights improvement in external position Indian markets have been stable over the past few days, even in comparison to the muted reaction in global market to events in Greece. Looking ahead, even if the worsening situation there causes... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI reading in June highlights the fact that, despite recent signs of a recovery in activity, local industry continues to face significant headwinds. 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Will the monsoon session of parliament be another washout? The monsoon session of parliament, due to begin in mid-July, has taken on extra significance given that the government's reform agenda has recently run into roadblocks. Top of the list of priorities... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Risk of “Grexit” hangs over Asia’s export outlook The direct links between Emerging Asia and Greece are very limited. Exports to Greece account for only a tiny proportion of regional GDP, while banking sector ties are negligible. What matters more... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (May) A sharp rise in mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in May could have been driven by fears of a further correction in Chinese equities. While imports from India were up 16% y/y in May, they... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Capital injections too small to revive banking sector The government’s plans to inject more capital into local banks are a positive step, but they are too limited to revive the ailing sector. Larger capital injections are needed to strengthen banks’... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery Some of India's latest activity data are showing signs of improvement. For example, industrial production has accelerated over the past few months. Measures of expenditure and income tell a similar... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update India’s gold demand to remain strong despite poor monsoon According to the World Gold Council (WGC), rural households in India allocate 7-8% of their annual savings to gold. Good harvests raise income levels and translate into greater gold demand. However... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee likely to weaken only gradually The Indian rupee has rallied in the past few days, but we expect the currency to come under some pressure as the US Fed begins to tighten policy later this year. However, given the huge improvement in... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Modest rise in MSP strengthens case for another rate cut The small rise in guaranteed prices for crops produced during the monsoon season that was announced by the government yesterday marks an important step away from populist policymaking of the past... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
