India Chart Pack A missed opportunity The monsoon session of parliament, which concluded last week, has ended up being one of the biggest disappointments of Prime Minister Modi’s tenure so far, with virtually no progress made on pushing... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee drops to two-year low The Indian rupee has depreciated against the US dollar so far in August to its weakest level since the 2013 "taper tantrum". But unlike two years ago, we see little reason for policymakers to panic. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Has bank lending turned a corner? The sharp slowdown in bank lending to the private sector over the past four years appears to have bottomed out, as cuts to policy rates gradually feed through to commercial banks’ lending rates. But... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Wholesale price inflation dropped sharply in July to its lowest rate since the series began. This substantially increases the chance of the Reserve Bank of India cutting interest rates in another... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reform agenda hits another roadblock The ruling BJP's efforts to push through important economic reforms in the monsoon session of parliament, which finishes today, have been largely unsuccessful. Looking ahead, with attention soon... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) The sharp drop in Indian inflation in July was due in large part to favourable base effects, and is therefore unlikely to have much bearing on upcoming policy decisions. The Reserve Bank has stated... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update No need to panic over rupee sell-off The rupee has depreciated to its weakest level since the 2013 "taper tantrum" this morning, but we don't think that this will cause panic among policymakers. Since the start of the year, the rupee has... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Base effects to drag down inflation Large base effects are likely to have dragged down inflation in July. The Reserve Bank has stated that it will be looking through base effects over the coming months when making policy decisions... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI's rate-cutting cycle not over yet The Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep interest rates on hold today does not signal the end of the current loosening cycle. We are forecasting one more 25bp cut in this cycle, which would bring... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI increased in July, but conditions are still subdued by past standards. Looking ahead, with progress on creating a favourable business environment remaining slow, a sustained... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bleak outlook for exports The slump in India’s exports over the past few months has been caused in part by the sharp fall in global oil prices and the relative strength of the US dollar, two trends that are unlikely to be... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New Financial Code risks damaging RBI independence The draft version of the government’s Financial Code, released last week, could have important implications for the functioning of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The adoption of a voting monetary... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Bigger risks to growth in Malaysia than 1MDB scandal The controversy surrounding the state investment company, 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), has intensified in recent days after Prime Minister Najib Razak, who has been accused of taking money from... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rupee weakness unlikely to concern policymakers The recent weakness of the rupee, which has fallen by more than 1.5% against the US dollar in the past couple of weeks, is unlikely to worry policymakers. For a start, the fall in the rupee is a... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Activity weak enough to justify another rate cut The alternative economic indicators that the Reserve Bank of India is now putting more weight on to assess the health of the economy still point to weakness. They will convince policymakers, we think... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Credit slowdown to weigh on Asian growth After a poor start to 2015, we expect growth in Emerging Asia to pick up in the second half of the year as the benefits of lower oil prices and loose monetary policy filter through to the domestic... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
