India Chart Pack BJP facing tough battle in Bihar Prime Minister Modi and the BJP face an uphill battle in their attempts to win the ongoing election in the state of Bihar. From an economic perspective, the Bihar vote is important for two key reasons... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equities regain their poise After struggling for most of this year, Indian equities have rallied so far in October. Looking ahead, with valuations not looking particularly stretched, we expect equities to post further gains over... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export slump highlights risks to government target The narrowing in India’s trade deficit in September masks that fact that exports continue to contract sharply. Wide-ranging reform is needed to boost export prospects but, with progress still slow... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bailout package for power sector would have limited impact A bailout for India’s heavily-indebted electricity providers would be a positive step, but there are reasons to doubt the effectiveness of any rescue deal. For a start, any package is likely to be... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) Wholesale price inflation rose in September after falling a record low in August. Looking ahead, we think that WPI inflation will accelerate further over the coming months as the favourable base... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What can the RBI do to get banks to lower interest rates? Having cut the repo rate by 125bp this year, the RBI has shifted its focus to ensuring that banks pass on these rate reductions to borrowers. In truth, high levels of bad debt mean that the banking... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) Indian consumer price inflation rose in September. Looking ahead, while theRBI’s inflation target for January 2016 isn’t under threat, meeting the medium term target will be difficult. Given this, we... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Emerging Asia set for recovery The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bottoming out Inflation is likely to have accelerated in September, due in large part to the unwindingof the favourable base effects that helped anchor food inflation in July and August.What’s more, inflation... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The fall in India’s manufacturing PMI reading in September highlights the fact that, despite recent signs of a recovery in activity, local industry continues to face significant headwinds. 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry begins to see the bigger picture The Finance Ministry’s combative approach to some key issues, including the retrospective taxation of foreign companies and the potential composition of the proposed monetary policy committee, has... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI front-loads policy loosening The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 50bp today, to 6.75%, went beyond what most had expected. But having stated that its attention will now turn to its medium-term... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch India’s new gold schemes not yet a game changer On 10th September the Indian parliament approved the launch of the Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) and the Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme (SGBS). The GMS and the SGBS have been introduced in an attempt to... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Another rate cut likely With recent activity data weak and inflation low, the consensus has swung around to our long-held view that the Reserve Bank of India will cut interest rates again this year, with the upcoming meeting... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about a weak rupiah? The Indonesian rupiah has fallen again over the past week, hitting a fresh 17-year low against the US dollar. The sharp drop in the currency, which is down by a cumulative 33% since the start of 2013... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack FM Jaitley is playing a risky game India’s Finance Ministry continues to tread on dangerous ground by becoming increasingly vocal in its calls for further monetary easing. Most recently in an interview over the weekend, Finance... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
