India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check despite weak export prospects India’s trade deficit narrowed at the start of 2016 as the continued slump in exports was more than offset by another collapse in imports. With a number of factors likely to keep commodity imports in... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) Wholesale price inflation unexpectedly dropped in January but, looking ahead, it still looks set to return to positive territory in Q1. 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) Today’s CPI data for January confirm that the Reserve Bank was successful in meeting its near-term inflation target but also highlight the difficult task the RBI faces in achieving its medium-term... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Have the gold schemes been a success? The government’s two new schemes aimed at reducing gold imports have had mixed results in their early stages. The Gold Monetisation Scheme has attracted little interest, while the Sovereign Gold Bond... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Today’s release of another set of strong GDP data alongside upward revisions to earlier quarters’ growth rates is more likely to deepen doubts about the quality of the official data than improve... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Budget proposals could stoke price pressures Inflation is likely to have risen at the start of 2016 on account of a further small rise in food inflation. Looking ahead, the FY16/17 budget is likely to incorporate a significant rise in public... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, no change likely in 2016 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.75% today and, while the consensus is expecting further modest loosening later this year, we think that rates will remain unchanged... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) India's manufacturing PMI rose at the start of 2016, but the reading remains weak by past standards. The big picture is that local industry continues to face significant structural headwinds. 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update India to remain a major importer of gold, for now While the response to India’s Gold Monetisation Scheme has been fairly muted so far, the Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme has been a success, having attracted the equivalent of almost four tonnes of gold... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fiscal success in FY15/16, but tougher challenges await As attention turns to the government’s FY16/17 budget announcement on 29 th February, the finance ministry can look back on what appears to have been a successful FY15/16. We think that this year’s... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Policy rates unlikely to fall any further The consensus is expecting further, albeit limited, monetary easing in India over the coming months, but we continue to think that the rate-cutting cycle has come to an end. The Reserve Bank of India... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Weak inflation means rates will remain low for longer Inflation across Emerging Asia remains very low, with consumer prices rising by less than 2% y/y in seven of the 14 countries we track. Two of those, Thailand and Singapore, are in deflation, while... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia well-placed to ride out financial market storms Global markets have had a rocky start to the year with equities, emerging market currencies and oil bearing the brunt of the declines. The stock market falls are unlikely to have much of an impact on... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Sensex slumps to pre-Modi levels The past month has seen India's benchmark Sensex stock index drop to its lowest level since the inauguration of Prime Minister Modi in May 2014. The latest slump is linked to the global equity sell... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bad start to 2016 India has not been spared the sell-off in EM financial markets since the start of the year. The rupee is now at its weakest rate against the US dollar since the currency crisis of September 2013... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lower privatisation targets would boost credibility With only two months of this fiscal year remaining, the finance ministry’s aim of raising nearly INR700bn in revenues through the privatisation of various state-owned companies looks impossible to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
