India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) Indian consumer price inflation rose above the Reserve Bank’s target for March 2017 last month, supporting our view that the scope for further loosening is very limited. 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bankruptcy reform would be a major step forward The Lok Sabha’s vote in favour of an overhaul of India’s archaic bankruptcy laws is a step towards creating a more friendly business environment and easing constraints in the banking sector. What’s... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to remain close to target We think that consumer price inflation held steady April as the recent slowdown in food inflation appears to have run its course. With inflation only just below the RBI's 5.0% target for March 2017... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to remain close to target We think that consumer price inflation held steady April as the recent slowdown in food inflation appears to have run its course. With inflation only just below the RBI's 5.0% target for March 2017... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The drop in India's manufacturing PMI in April provides another reminder that local industry continues to face significant headwinds. 2nd May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Assessing the impact of a strong monsoon Early forecasts of a stronger-than-normal monsoon in India this year have raised hopes of a boost to GDP growth and a drop in inflation as agricultural production gets ramped up. But the early... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Drought hits agricultural output in Thailand and Vietnam Vietnam and Thailand are facing their worst drought in decades, with water levels in the Mekong River at their lowest since 1926. The drought is already having an impact on growth. A decline in... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Mar.) Gold imports by both China and India slumped in the first quarter. While imports have been undeniably weak so far in 2016, we expect buying to pick up later in the year in part due to the release of... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What would the impact be if Governor Rajan stepped down? Indian media has been awash with reports that RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan might not have his contract renewed when his term expires in September. In the unlikely case that this occurs, financial... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Banking sector still requires wider reform Recent policy tweaks from the RBI should help at the margins to boost bank lending, which has been moribund over the past few years. Most obviously, the 25bp rate cut this month means that the repo... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bond market rally could soon run out of steam Yields on India's local currency debt have fallen so far in April to their lowest in nearly three years. But with the scope for further monetary loosening now looking limited, we think that yields are... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government faces uphill task to meet export target The narrowing in India's trade deficit to a six-year low in FY15/16 is welcome news, but this masks the fact that exports slumped by over 15% last year. With progress on the reforms needed to create a... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Maturing FX swaps unlikely to rattle markets Recent concerns over a potential market sell-off when the Reserve Bank‘s FX swap facilities, unveiled during the 2013 “taper tantrum”, mature have been overstated. For a start, the RBI has already... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Wholesale price inflation was virtually unchanged in March but, looking ahead, we think that it will return to positive territory over the next couple of months. 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is consumer spending about to take off? Following years of weakness, there are signs that private consumption in India is finally finding its feet. Cyclical factors such as looser monetary policy should help to support the nascent recovery... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) The drop in Indian consumer price inflation in March is likely to fuel talk of more interest rate cuts, but we think that the scope for further loosening still looks very limited. 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
