India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The sharp rise in wholesale price inflation in May reinforces our view that there is little scope for further monetary loosening. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The rise in India’s consumer price inflation last month pushes it further above the RBI’s target for March 2017. This supports our view that there is no further scope for policy loosening. 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) Today’s industrial production data suggest, in stark contrast to the upbeat message from the rocketing GDP figures, that Indian industry is still in the doldrums. 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in inflation not enough to prompt rate cut Consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped in May, but not by enough to bring it below the RBI’s 5.0% target for March 2017. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, loosening cycle likely at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.50% today and, while the consensus is expecting further modest loosening later this year, we think that rates will remain unchanged... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Further cuts to repo rate unlikely The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its repo rate by 150bp since the start of last year, but we believe that it will now keep rates on hold not just at next week’s policy meeting but for the rest... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) India's manufacturing PMI edged up in May, but the reading remained lacklustre. The big picture is that local manufacturers continue to face significant structural constraints. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) There is some evidence that India’s economy has picked up speed recently but today’s remarkably strong GDP data are hard to believe. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Another look at the ailing banking sector The sharp rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) in Q1 does not indicate that there has been a sudden deterioration in asset quality in India, but instead suggests a greater recognition of stressed... 30th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well-placed to cope with the Fed’s next rate hikes The US Fed looks set to increase interest rates soon, possibly as early as its June meeting, and we think it will end up hiking more than is generally expected over the next couple of years. However... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack PM Modi's first two years end on a high note Two years on from his inauguration, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arguably just enjoyed his most successful month in office. For a start, PM Modi's BJP secured two important legislative victories... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee to weaken only gradually The Indian rupee has weakened against the US dollar over the past month and, with the US Fed likely to tighten policy again over the coming months, the currency could depreciate a little more . But... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State election results brighten reform outlook Regional parties have dominated the state elections held over the past month, but there has also been an apparent strengthening of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP at the local level. On... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Tax amendments another success for Modi government Recent amendments to the tax treaty between India and Mauritius - the terms of which have made Mauritius the leading source of foreign investment into India - are likely to bring more benefits than... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) Indian wholesale price inflation rose sharply in April and returned to positive territory for the first time in 18 months. This reinforces our view that there is little scope for further monetary... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Import weakness to keep trade deficit in check India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed to a five-year low in April. With a number of factors likely to keep commodity imports in check, the overall current account position is unlikely to return as a... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
