RBI Watch New governor to opt for policy continuity Much of the commentary in the run-up to Dr Urjit Patel’s first policy meeting as RBI governor on 4th October has been focused on whether he will take on the mantle of his predecessor Raghuram Rajan... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government moves a step closer to establishing new MPC The government’s announcement today of the names of three members marks another step towards the creation of a policy-setting monetary policy committee (MPC). The announcement also confirms that the... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low India’s current account deficit all but held steady at a low level in Q2, which leaves the economy well placed to weather any sudden shifts in global risk appetite over the coming months. 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rollout of GST is edging closer Progress in implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) since the bill was passed in parliament in early August has so far been fairly smooth. However, there are still a number of sticking points... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Domestic factors unlikely to cause rupee slump The rupee has been stable against the US dollar in recent months. Looking ahead, suggestions that domestic factors, including calls from within government for a devaluation of the currency and the RBI... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lower import bill will keep trade deficit in check The monthly trade deficit narrowed a touch in August and, with a number of factors likely to keep commodity imports in check, the overall current account position is unlikely to return as a source of... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Corporate bond reform could ease financing constraints Recent measures aimed at reinvigorating India’s domestic corporate bond market are likely to vary in their impact. But overall, the reforms should help to open a new source of financing for Indian... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Indian wholesale price inflation rose for the seventh consecutive month in August, and is set to accelerate further over the near term. This supports our view that there is little scope for further... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) The fall in India’s consumer price inflation rate last month brings it into line with the RBI’s near-term target. This may fuel talk of more interest rate cuts but we think that scope for further... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fiscal deficit target is under pressure The rapid expansion of the government deficit in the early part of this fiscal year is a common occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in the latter months. However, unlike in previous years... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New RBI governor faces hard task in meeting targets CPI inflation data for August are likely to show that the headline rate eased a touch, but remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. With the new governor, Dr Urjit Patel... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus How to think about monetary policy after Rajan The appointment of Dr Urjit Patel as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) gives a strong indication of policy continuity at the central bank, and strengthens our view that the easing... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) India’s manufacturing PMI rose in August, but the reading still only points to subdued growth in industrial output. The big picture is that local manufacturers continue to face structural constraints... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) Today’s release of another set of strong GDP data will do little to dispel doubts aboutthe quality of the national accounts numbers. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Resetting reform priorities after the GST The passage of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill this month, 10 years after its introduction, was arguably the biggest legislative victory to date for the Modi government. Looking ahead, the... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Strong vehicle sales not a sign of consumption revival The recent surge in sales of new vehicles is likely to have been driven by industry-specific policies to reduce pollution by taking old vehicles off the road rather than a more general boom in... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
