Europe Economic Outlook Crisis deepens as slowdown spreads to the core The latest rescue package for Greece has reduced the threat of a near-term catastrophe in the eurozone.But it does not address the fundamental problems facing Greece itself and is unlikely to bring an... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) The sharp fall in the flash euro-zone PMI in July provides further signs that slowing export growth and the debt crisis is starting to take a heavy toll on the region’s economic recovery both in the... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have the downside risks to the French retail market increased? Signs that French consumer spending has fallen sharply over the past couple of months might make our forecast for retail rental values to track sideways this year look too optimistic. Yet, in the... 18th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Do the harmonised falls in property yields in Paris and Lyon make sense? On first glance, it is striking that falls in property yields in Lyon have more or less matched those in Paris. However, with broadly similar prospects for rental value growth, at least for the retail... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Paris' office rental recovery running out of steam? We suspect that Q3’s halt to Paris’ prime office rental recovery is a temporary blip on a generally upward trend. Indeed, although service sector sentiment has remained broadly flat for the past few... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The implications of the French strike The French strike will probably have a smaller immediate effect on economic activity than the press might have you believe. However, it is the clearest sign yet that the euro-zone’s second largest... 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Aug.) The latest German industrial and French trade data suggest that, despite ongoing fears about the region’s periphery, the immediate risk of a “double dip” recession in the euro-zone as a whole is small... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France and Portugal struggle to apply fiscal squeeze Recent developments in France and Portugal confirm that both are struggling to implement measures to ensure a sustained reduction in public borrowing. But market pressures will force Portugal to act... 30th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q2), Italian & French Industrial Production (Jul.) Q2’s Italian GDP figures confirmed that Italy continued to expand at a pretty healthy pace last quarter. But we think that the recovery may already have run its course and that there is a strong... 10th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Paris retail yields too low? Compared to offices, history suggests that retail property yields in Paris are too low. The weak outlook for consumer spending and the stronger outlook for office rental value growth point to the same... 5th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) & French Consumer Spending (Jun.) July’s rise in the German Ifo index suggests that the economy is performing very well despite signs of a slowdown in the US and elsewhere. But June’s fall in French consumer spending confirmed that... 23rd July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How sustainable is the recovery in French office rental values? We think that the nascent recovery in French office rental values probably has further to run. Indeed, with business confidence approaching long-run average levels and a risk of undersupply emerging... 23rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update French and German prospects better than derivatives prices imply Commercial property derivatives pricing may be giving too negative a steer on the outlook for French and German capital values. Indeed, in projecting flat or falling property prices, derivatives... 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Germany will lag the industrial property recovery in France Despite a stronger recovery in German industrial production, the French industrial property market is performing better than Germany’s. While we suspect that the extent of that relative outperformance... 10th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q1), Italian & French Industrial Production (Apr.) Q1’s GDP figures confirmed that, for now at least, Italy is expanding at a reasonably healthy pace. But with signs that the euro-zone fiscal crisis is damaging business and consumer confidence, growth... 10th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production/Trade & French Trade (Apr.) April’s rise in German industrial production provides hope that the recovery in the wider economy is gaining momentum. But with fiscal policy in Germany and elsewhere set to be tightened dramatically... 8th June 2010 · 1 min read
