Europe Economics Update French election won’t tackle key issues With Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande set to emerge as frontrunners after the first round of the French presidential elections this Sunday, attention will turn more closely to what their policies... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris property yields looking vulnerable to an economic downturn In our view, the plunge in French commercial property investment volumes in the first quarter of 2012 highlights some fundamental weaknesses in the market. And if we are right that the French economy... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis unsolved as growth outlook darkens Hopes that the crisis in the euro-zone had been solved by Greece’s debt restructuring and the ECB’s recent liquidity injections have faded. Despite some signs of resilience in Germany, the economic... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak service sector putting the brakes on euro-zone office rent growth This morning’s PMI data suggest that business activity in the euro-zone’s service sector remains subdued. And if the past relationships between employment PMIs and office rental value growth continue... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) March’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI supports the view that the region may have fallen back into recession in Q1 and that divergences with the US are widening. 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which European office markets are most at risk of oversupply? Within Europe, office markets in the euro-zone’s peripheral region appear to be most at risk of oversupply over the next two years. But less obviously, office markets in Amsterdam and Budapest also... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB really solved the crisis? The ECB’s latest liquidity operations appear to have averted, or at least delayed, a looming disaster in the euro-zone banking sector. But it would be wrong to think that they have solved the region’s... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) For now at least, Portugal, Italy and Ireland all appear to be meeting their budget deficit targets. But the Spanish deficit narrowed by much less than expected in 2011 and further slippage appears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer survey echoed other indicators in pointing to a slight improvement in sentiment in the euro-zone. But there are few signs of the strong economic growth needed to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone commercial property recovery hopes dashed by PMIs This morning’s “flash” release of euro-zone PMI data poured cold water on hopes that Q4’s quarterly economic contraction would be a one-off. Indeed, it looks as though the euro-zone is now in a... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s fall in the euro-zone PMI puts a bit of a dent in hopes that Q4’s economic contraction will prove to be a one off. 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly France won't stay in the lead for long Q4’s GDP figures revealed that France was one of the few euro-zone economies to expand at the end of last year. But prospects for French exports are marred by fairly weak competitiveness and a... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The provisional Q4 euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the economy contracted at the end of last year, albeit by a bit less than had been feared. The 0.3% quarterly fall was slightly better than the... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crunch year for the euro-zone? While the news on the euro-zone economy has improved a bit in the last month or two, 2012 could still turn out to be crunch year for the currency union. Fiscal progress in the peripheral economies has... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update French rental value prospects are bad, but not "Portuguese" bad Recent survey evidence suggests that the rental outlook in France is about as bad as it is in Portugal. We agree that the prospects for French rental values are pretty weak. However, the sheer scale... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Compact agreed, but economies diverge While European leaders have now agreed to the fiscal compact proposed last year, its terms have been diluted significantly. Meanwhile, their economies have continued to diverge. Most worryingly, while... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
